This week in monetary policy: Poland, Japan, Canada, Chile, South Korea, Indonesia & ECB

    This week - July 13 through July 18 - central banks from 7 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Poland, Japan, Canada  Chile, South Korea, Indonesia and the euro area.

    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.

    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 29
JUL 13 - JUL 18 2020:
POLAND	14-Jul	0.10%	0	-140	1.50%	EM
JAPAN	15-Jul	-0.10%	0	0	-0.10%	DM
CANADA	15-Jul	0.25%	0	-150	1.75%	DM
CHILE	15-Jul	0.50%	0	-125	2.50%	EM
SOUTH KOREA	16-Jul	0.50%	-25	-75	1.50%	EM
INDONESIA	16-Jul	4.25%	-25	-75	5.75%	EM
EURO AREA	16-Jul	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	DM

    www.CentralBankNews.info

BOJ launches 3rd funding measure aimed at SMEs

     The Bank of Japan (BOJ) launched a third measure aimed at supporting small and medium-sized firms affected by the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and extended the duration of all three measures by another 6 months until the end of March 2021.
     Japan's central bank noted its existing measures of purchasing commercial paper and corporate bonds, with a maximum amount outstanding of some 20 trillion yen, and the 25 trillion yen Special Funds-Supplying Operations to Facilitate Financing in Response to the Novel Coronavirus.
     In its statement following an unscheduled policy board meeting that was announced on May 19, the BOJ said it would add a new fund-provisioning measure based on eligible loans from banks based on the government's 30 trillion yen emergency economic support plan.
     The total size of these three measures aimed a businesses, which will be known as "the Special Program," will be about 75 trillion.
     "By conducting these measures, the Bank will continue to support financing mainly of firms and to maintain stability in financial markets," BOJ said, reiterating that it is closely monitoring the impact of Covid-19 and "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary."
      Under its new fund-providing measure, BOJ will provide funds at a loan rate of zero percent while a positive interest rate of  0.1 percent will be applied to the outstanding balances of banks' current accounts that correspond to the amounts of loans provided through this measure.
      The BOJ's policy board also affirmed the key elements of its current monetary policy framework known as "yield curve control," which includes a negative interest rate of 0.1 percent on banks' excess reserves.
     It also confirmed decisions taken at its regular meeting in April in which it boosted its asset purchases and scrapped an earlier annual limit of buying 80 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in favor of buying bonds "without setting an upper limit" so the 10-year yield remains around zero percent.
     BOJ confirmed it would be buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) to their amounts outstanding increase at an annual pace with the upper limit of some 12 trillion yen and some 180 billion yen, respectively.
     As far as commercial paper and corporate bonds, BOJ said it would maintain their outstanding amounts at about 2 trillion and 3 trillion yen, respectively.
     However, BOJ will now undertake additional purchases of both these assets classes until the end of March 2021, as compared with April's target of September 2020, with the upper limit of 7.5 trillion yen for each asset. In April the additional purchases were raised to the 7.5 trillion from an earlier 1 trillion for each asset.
     Data released today showed Japan's consumer price inflation fell to only 0.1 in April from 0.4 percent in the previous two months and is now at the lowest level since November 2016.
    The drop in inflation is bound to ignite concern that BOJ is losing its fight against deflation.
    Japan officially fell into recession in the first quarter of this year as its gross domestic product shrank 0.9 percent following a fall of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, the country's first recession since late 2014.
     On an annual basis, GDP shrank 2.0 percent in the first quarter after shrinking 0.7 percent in the previous quarter. 
     At its April policy meeting, the BOJ slashed its forecast for growth and inflation.
     BOJ forecast the economy would shrink between 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent in the 2019 fiscal year, which ended on March 30, down from its January forecast of growth of 0.8 to 0.9 percent.
     For fiscal 2020, which began on April 1, BOJ forecast the economy would shrink a further 5.0 to 3.0 percent before expanding between 2.8 and 3.9 percent in fiscal 2021.
     BOJ forecast consumer prices would decline 0.7 to 0.3 percent in the current fiscal 2020 before rising to 0.0 to 0.7 percent in fiscal 2021, well below its 2.0 percent target.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

BOJ to hold unscheduled policy meeting Friday, May 22

     Japan's central bank will hold an unscheduled monetary policy meeting on Friday, May 22, "on possible new measures to provide funds to financial institutions."
     The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said in a statement the chairman of the policy board had called the meeting to discuss "monetary control matters" based on a staff report that was compiled following a request by Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda at the April 27 policy meeting.
     BOJ's next meeting on monetary policy was scheduled for June 15 and 16.
     Separately, Japan's Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura told a news conference in Tokyo today that Japan was ready to deploy all available fiscal and monetary means to protect jobs and businesses from the widening fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to Reuters.
     He was also quoted saying it would not be good if Japan were to slip back into deflation just because there was too much concern over fiscal health.
      Japan officially fell into recession in the first quarter of this year as its gross domestic product shrank 0.9 percent following a fall of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, the country's first recession since late 2014.
     On an annual basis, GDP shrank 2.0 percent in the first quarter after shrinking 0.7 percent in the previous quarter.
     Inflation was steady at 0.4 percent in March and February.
     At its April policy meeting, the BOJ slashed its forecast for growth and inflation, and boosted its asset purchases, also known as quantitative easing.
     BOJ forecast the economy would shrink between 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent in the 2019 fiscal year, which ended on March 30, down from its January forecast of growth of 0.8 to 0.9 percent.
     For fiscal 2020, which began on April 1, BOJ forecast the economy would shrink a further 5.0 to 3.0 percent before expanding between 2.8 and 3.9 percent in fiscal 2021.
     BOJ forecast consumer prices would decline 0.7 to 0.3 percent in the current fiscal 2020 before rising to 0.0 to 0.7 percent in fiscal 2021, well below its 2.0 percent target.
     In its April policy statement, BOJ said it would not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary and expects short- and long-term interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels.
     BOJ also boosted it purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds to 7.5 trillion yen for each asset class from an earlier limit of 1 trillion, and boosted the purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate trusts (J-Reits) to 12 trillion and 180 billion, respectively, from an earlier limit of 6 trillion and 90 billion.
     BOJ also said it would be buying Japanese government bonds, or JGBs without an upper limit so the 10-year yields remain around zero percent.
      Previously, BOJ had a target of buying some 80 trillion yen of government bonds annually but it has also used a combination of negative interest rates - 0.10 percent on banks' excess reserves - and so-called "yield curve control" since September 2016 to ensure bond yields remain low.

     www.CentralBankNews.info

BOJ boosts asset purchases as economy seen shrinking

     Facing what it said was "an increasingly severe situation" from the spread of the coronavirus, Japan's central bank enhanced its monetary easing by boosting its purchases of commercial paper, corporate bonds, exchange-traded funds and real estate trusts, and will buy an unlimited amount of government bonds to ensure their yield remains around zero percent.
     The Bank of Japan (BOJ) slashed its outlook for economic growth and inflation, and now sees the economy shrinking between 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent in the current 2019 fiscal year, which began on April 1, and then shrinking a further 5.0 percent to 3.0 percent in fiscal 2020.
     "Japan's economy is likely to remain in a severe situation for the time being due to the impact of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) at home and abroad," BOJ said.
     In January BOJ forecast growth of 0.8-0.9 percent in fiscal 2019 and then 0.8-1.1 percent in fiscal 2020. For fiscal 2021 BOJ sees growth of 2.8-3.9 percent and then 0.8-1.6 percent in 2022.
     In the fourth quarter of 2019 Japan's economy contracted 0.7 percent year-on-year.
     BOJ added it "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary, and also it expects short- and long-term interest rates to remain at their present levels or lower levels."
     While BOJ will continue with its current monetary policy framework of "quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) with yield cure control to boost inflation to its 2.0 percent target, there is still no prospect of meeting this target for the time being.
     Consumer price inflation in the current fiscal year is now seen averaging 0.6 percent, slightly below its January forecast of 0.6-0.7 percent, but in fiscal 2020 consumer prices are seen falling by 0.7-0.3 percent before rising to between 0.0-0.7 percent in fiscal 2021.
     In January BOJ forecast inflation of 1.0-1.1 percent in fiscal 2020 and 1.2-1.6 percent in fiscal 2021. For fiscal 2022 BOJ sees inflation of 0.4-1.0 percent.
     In March and February Japan's inflation rate was steady at 0.4 percent.
     BOJ has used a combination of negative interest rates and "yield curve control" since September 2016 and will continue to apply a minus 0.10 percent interest rate on banks' excess reserves.
     But its asset purchases, also known as quantitative easing, will expand greatly, and as far as Japanese government bonds, known as JGBs, it will be buying "a necessary amount of JGB's without setting an upper limits so that 10-year JBB yields will remain at around zero percent."
     This unlimited purchase of government bonds compares with BOJ's previous aim of buying about 80 trillion yen annually and mirrors the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy of buying enough U.S. Treasury securities to ensure an effective transmission of its policy.
     It also decided to boost its purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds to 7.5 trillion for each asset class from an earlier limit of 1 trillion, with the upper limit on outstanding holdings of 20 trillion. The additional purchases will continue until the end of September 2020.
     The amount of exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate trusts (J-REITs) to be purchased will rise to an upper limit of 12 trillion and 180 billion yen, respectively, from an earlier limit of 6 trillion and 90 billion yen.
     BOJ will also expand a special coronavirus fund set up in March aimed at facilitating corporate financing.
      The range of collateral will now include private debt, including household debt, of up to 23 trillion yen from an earlier 8 trillion, boost the number of eligible counterparties and a positive interest rate of 0.1 percent will be applied to the outstanding balances of the current accounts of financial institutions that equal their outstanding loans under this operation.

Coordinated central bank action to boost USD liquidity

     Six major central banks have for the second time this week taken steps to ensure that U.S. dollars are readily available worldwide by increasing the frequency of their funding operations to daily from weekly.
     The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank said in a joint statement they were "announcing further coordinated action to further enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements."
     Starting on Monday, March 23, the six central banks will increase the frequency of 7-day maturity operations to daily from weekly, continuing at least through April. Weekly 84-day maturity operations will also be held, they added.
     On March 15 the same six central banks lowered the price of their standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 25 basis points and began offering U.S. dollars weekly with a 84-day maturity, in addition to the 1-week maturity operations they were offering.
     On March 19 the Fed then established temporary swap lines with the central banks of Australia, Brazil, Denmark, South Korea, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, Singapore and Sweden.

UPDATE-BOJ, Fed, ECB pledge 'appropriate' action in response to virus

     (Following item is updated with ECB vice president de Guindos, Bank of England, Basel banking supervisors and Indonesia)
  
    The central banks of Japan, the United States and the euro area are keeping a close eye on the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity and said they would take "appropriate" measures in response to the virus, which Paris-based OECD said presents the global economy with its greatest danger since the financial crises.
     In its interim economic outlook, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on March 2 slashed its forecast for world economic growth to 2.4 percent from 2019's 2.9 percent and November's forecast of 2.9 percent, warning growth could even be negative in the first quarter of 2020.
     "Growth prospects remain highly uncertain," OECD said, calling on governments to "act swiftly and forcefully to overcome the coronavirus and its economic impact."
     Both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve have taken the unusual step of issuing written statements in response to the plunge in global stock markets since Feb. 20 due to fear over how the coronavirus, or COVID-19, will affect global supply chains, travel and commodity markets.
     Luis de Guindos, vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said in a speech in London on March 2 the coronavirus had added a new layer of uncertainty to global and euro area growth prospects and the ECB was "vigilant and will closely monitor all incoming data."
     "In any case, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner," de Guindos added.
     Later Reuters reported de Guindos told journalists that global central banks have held talks about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, with such discussions always taking place during times of volatility.
     Last week, on Feb. 26 and Feb. 27 global banking supervisors met in Basel, Switzerland, to review current risks to the banking system, including the implications of the virus outbreak on financial stability.
     A statement from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said supervisors had exchanged information on business continuity measures that banks and authorities had in place and encouraged banks and supervisors to "remain vigilant in light of the evolving situation and notes the importance of effective cross border information sharing and cooperation when dealing with such shocks."
     The BOJ and Fed also said they will take "appropriate" measures, with the BOJ saying it will provide ample liquidity and ensure stability in financial markets through market operations and asset purchases, while the Fed said it would use its tools to support the economy.
     Shortly thereafter the BOJ offered 500 billion yen in 2-week funds via market operations.
     A spokesman for the Bank of England (BOE) also said it was working with the UK Treasury and international partners to assess the potential impact of the virus on the global and UK economy to help protect the country's banking system and its economy.
     Indonesia's central bank, which already lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on Feb. 20,  also took to the offensive in light of financial market uncertainty, which has resulted in investors withdrawing funds from developing countries in favor of safe-haven assets, such as U.S. government bonds and gold.
     Bank Indonesia said it would "intensify" its triple intervention policy to ensure the rupiah moves in line with fundamentals, cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement by 400 basis points to 4.0 percent to boost FX liquidity by around US$3.2 billion, and cut the reserve requirement on rupiah deposits by 50 basis points for those banks that are financing export-import activity.

BOJ maintains ultra-easy policy, confirms guidance

     The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its ultra-easy monetary policy steady, including the negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent on banks' excess reserves, and confirmed its guidance that it would continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing with yield curve control as long as necessary to reach and maintain its target for inflation to reach 2 percent.
     BOJ also confirmed its guidance from October that it would not hesitate to take additional easing measures if the momentum toward achieving its price stability target were lost due to if there were significant downside risks to economic activity and prices, mainly from overseas economies.
     Looking ahead, BOJ also maintained its view Japan's economy will continue on a "moderate expanding trend, as the impact of the slowdown in overseas economies on domestic demand is expected to be limited, although the economy is likely to continue to be affected by the slowdown for the time being."
     Although Japan's exports are likely to remain weak for some time, BOJ still sees them on a "moderate increasing trend on the back of overseas economies growing moderately on the whole."
      BOJ's statement underscores the general view that further monetary easing by major central banks is on hold for now, with the BOJ also noting domestic demand will be supported by the government's 13.2 trillion yen fiscal package that was approved by the cabinet this month.
     BOJ has used a combination of negative interest rates and "yield curve control" in which its uses asset purchases to keep the yield on government bonds around zero percent, since September 2016.
     Japan's headline inflation rate was steady at 0.2 percent in October and September while the economy has been picking up speed in recent quarters with gross domestic product growing 1.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 0.9 percent in the second and 0.8 percent in the first quarter.
      In its latest economic outlook from Oct. 31, BOJ lowered its forecast for growth in fiscal 2019, which began April 1, to 0.6 percent from July's forecast of 0.7 percent, the 2020 forecast to 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent, and the 2021 forecast to 1.0 percent from 1.1 percent.
     BOJ also lowered its outlook for inflation, both for consumer prices excluding fresh food, and for inflation excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike.
     CPI, less fresh food, is seen rising 0.7 percent in fiscal 2019, down from 1.0 percent. In fiscal 2020 inflation is seen at 1.1 percent, down from 1.3 percent, and in fiscal 2021 inflation is seen at 1.5 percent as compared with July's forecast of 1.6 percent.

2020 Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Calendar

     Herewith the first draft of the 2020 calendar for meetings by central bank committees that decide monetary policy.
     The following table includes the date for scheduled monetary policy meetings for more than 45 of the world's central banks. In the event that policy meetings take place over several days, the date listed below is for the final day of the meetings when decisions are normally announced.
     Central Bank News will update this calendar several times in coming weeks as some central banks have yet to release their meeting schedule for 2020.
     During the year the calendar is also regularly updated as some monetary policy committees only announce the date for the upcoming meeting a few weeks in advance.
     Readers are therefore encouraged to check the latest version of the calendar here.
     You may replicate the calendar in part of full only if you link to Central Bank News.

DATE	FX CODE	COUNTRY	CENTRAL BANK
JANUARY
8-Jan	RON	Romania	National Bank of Romania
8-Jan	PLN	Poland	National Bank of Poland
9-Jan	ILS	Israel	Bank of Israel
16-Jan	TRY	Turkey	Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
16-Jan	ZAR	South Africa	South African Reserve Bank
17-Jan	KRW	South Korea	Bank of Korea
17-Jan	ZWD	Zimbabwe	Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
21-Jan	JPY	Japan	Bank of Japan
22-Jan	CAD	Canada	Bank of Canada
22-Jan	MYR	Malaysia	Central Bank of Malaysia
23-Jan	NOK	Norway	Norges Bank
23-Jan	EUR	Euro area	European Central Bank
28-Jan	HUF	Hungary	Central Bank of Hungary
29-Jan	USD	United States	Federal Reserve
29-Jan	CLP	Chile	Central Bank of Chile
30-Jan	UAH	Ukraine	National Bank of Ukraine
31-Jan	BGN	Bulgaria	Bulgarian National Bank

BOJ holds rates, but may ease in October on rising risks

     Japan's central bank left its ultra-easy monetary policy stance steady but held out the prospect of further easing at its next policy meeting in October as the growing downside risks from the slowdown in the global economy may halt any progress in achieving the inflation target.
     The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has used a combination of a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent on banks' excess reserves and asset purchases to keep the yield on government bonds around zero percent since September 2016, and said today it would continue with this policy to boost inflation.
     However, the BOJ's policy board has clearly turned more worried about the impact of the global economic slowdown on the domestic economy.
     "Downside risks concerning overseas economies seem to be increasing, and it also is necessary to pay close attention to their impact on firms' and households' sentiment in Japan," the BOJ said.
      "Given that, recently, slowdowns in overseas economies have continued to be observed and their downside risks seem to be increasing, the Bank judged that it is becoming necessary to pay close attention to the possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target will be lost," BOJ said, adding it would reexamine the outlook at its next meeting when it updates its outlook.
      Among the risks to the economy and inflation, BOJ pointed to U.S. economic policies and the consequences of protectionist moves, developments in emerging and commodity-exporting economies, such as China, (including the effects of US policies and protectionism), global changes in IT-related goods, the UK's exit from the European Union and geopolitical risks.
     The prospect of a new round of monetary policy easing by the BOJ was already expected by economists following the BOJ's change to its statement in July when it added that it "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if there is a greater possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target will be lost."
     In April the BOJ tweaked its forward policy guidance by adding a time frame for the first time for maintaining its ultra-low levels of interest rates in contrast to the earlier guidance of maintaining low rates for "an extended period of time."
     Today the BOJ confirmed it would maintain its low interest rates for an extended time, "at least through around spring 2020," and keep rates low by purchasing government bonds so their amount rises by an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen.
     As part of its policy of "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control", the BOJ will also continue to buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (Reits) so the outstanding amounts rise at an annual pace of about 6 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen, respectively. It will also continue to buy commercial paper and corporate bonds so the outstanding amounts remain about 2.2 trillion and 3.2 trillion yen, respectively.
     The BOJ next issues its quarterly economic outlook in October and in the previous one from July it lowered its forecast for economic growth in fiscal 2019, which began April 1, to 0.7 percent from April's forecast of 0.8 percent.
     For fiscal 2020 the growth outlook was steady at 0.9 percent but for fiscal 2021 the outlook was lowed to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent.
     "With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend, despite being affected by the slowdown in overseas economies for the time being," BOJ said today, adding that although exports had shown some weakness, industrial production had been more or less flat, helped by higher domestic demand, and labor market conditions remained tight.
     In the second quarter Japan's gross domestic product grew an annual 1.0 percent, the same as in the first quarter.
     Despite its ultra-low interest rates and massive asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, the BOJ is still far from reaching its target of 2.0 percent inflation, with headline inflation down to 0.5 percent in July from 0.7 percent in the previous two months.
     In its forecast from July the BOJ also lowered its outlook for consumer price inflation to 1.0 percent for fiscal 2019 from April's forecast of 1.1 percent. For 2020 inflation is seen averaging 1.3 percent, down from 1.4 percent, and then rising to 1.6 percent in fiscal 2021.

BOJ to keep extremely low rates to at least spring 2020

     Acknowledging "high uncertainties regarding the outlook for economic activity and prices," the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it will maintain its current policy of extremely low interest rates at least to the spring of 2020 and relax its standards for collateral used to obtain credit.
     Since September 2016 the BOJ has employed ultra-easy monetary policy that uses a combination of a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to banks' reserves that exceed reserve requirements along with asset purchases aimed at keeping Japanese government bond yields around zero percent.
     While the BOJ confirmed it will maintain this negative interest rate and buy government bonds of around 80 trillion yen to keep yields low, it said it wanted to clarify that it will "persistently continue with powerful monetary easing" and in the case of a rapid rise in bond yields, it would purchase Japanese government bonds, or JGBs, "promptly and appropriately."
     "The Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including developments in overseas economies and the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike (in October 2019)," BOJ said.
     It is the first time the BOJ has included a time frame for its ultra-easy monetary. Its recent guidance, for example, in March merely stated it would "maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time."
     The BOJ still expects Japan's economy to continue to expand through fiscal 2021 despite the impact of slower global growth, with domestic demand continuing to trend upwards and exports rising moderately despite some weakness.
     "With regard to the risk balance, risks to both economic activity and prices are skewed to the downside," BOJ said in it its latest economic outlook.
     Inflation, which remains far below BOJ's 2.0 percent target, is still expected to slowly rise toward 2.0 percent but it acknowledged that momentum toward meeting this target is "not yet sufficiently firm, and thus developments in prices continue to warrant careful attention."
     In March Japan's headline inflation rate rose to 0.5 percent from 0.2 percent in February and January while gross domestic product only grew an annual 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 0.1 percent in the third quarter.
     The BOJ lowered its estimate for GDP growth for fiscal 2018, which ended April 1, to 0.6 percent from January's forecast of 0.9 percent.
     For fiscal 2019, Japan's economy is seen growing 0.8 percent, down from a previous 0.9 percent, and for fiscal 2020 the economy is seen growing 0.9 percent, down from 1.0 percent seen in January. For fiscal 2021, the BOJ forecast growth of 1.2 percent.
     Inflation for fiscal 2018 was estimated at 0.8 percent and at 1.1 percent for fiscal 2019, unchanged from January. For fiscal 2020 inflation for all items was forecast at 1.4 percent, down from January's forecast of 1.5 percent and for fiscal 2021 inflation is seen at 1.6 percent, still below its target.

BOJ keeps stance, expansion goes on despite slowdown

    Japan's central bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged, as expected, but acknowledged the country's exports and industrial production have been affected by the global economic slowdown.
     But the Bank of Japan (BOJ) still expects the economy to continue its "moderate expansion" despite the slowdown in overseas economies as domestic demand trends upward, helped by government spending.
     "Although exports are projected to show some weakness for the time being, they are expected to be on a moderate increasing trend on the back of overseas economies growing moderately on the whole," BOJ said.
     In today's statement, the BOJ's policy board confirmed its monetary policy of controlling the yield curve that has been in place since September 2016 - Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control (QQE) - and this policy would continue until inflation reaches its 2 percent target.
     In its outlook for economic activity and prices from January, the BOJ lowered its inflation forecast for the fourth time, with inflation excluding fresh food seen rising only 0.8 percent in fiscal 2018, which ends this month, down from October's forecast of 0.9 percent.
    In January Japan's core inflation rate edged up to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent in December.
    Consumer prices in fiscal 2019, excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike, are seen rising 0.9 percent, down from 1.4 percent previously forecast, due to lower oil prices, and for fiscal 2020 inflation is seen at 1.4 percent, down from 1.5 percent.
     Japan's economy is expected to continue to expand around its potential rate, with growth in fiscal 2018 hit by natural disasters last summer.
     The estimate of gross domestic product growth in fiscal 2018 was lowered to 0.9 percent from October's forecast of 1.4 percent.
     GDP grew 0.5 percent in the fourth calendar quarter of 2018 from the third quarter for annual growth of 0.3 percent, up from 0.1 percent in the third quarter.
     For this coming fiscal year, the forecast for growth was revised up to 0.9 percent from a previous 0.8 percent, and for fiscal 2020 growth is seen at 1.0 percent, up from 0.8 percent.
     After falling from March 2018 to December, the yen rose strongly in late December but has given up some of those gains this year. Today the yen was trading at 111.8 to the U.S. dollar, down 1.3 percent this year.
      As part of its monetary policy, the BOJ reiterated it would maintain a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent on banks' deposits that exceed reserve requirements along with the purchase of government bonds of around 80 trillion yen in order to keep 10-year government bond yields around 0 percent.
       As part of its QQE policy, the BOJ also purchases Exchange-Traded-Funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so the outstanding amounts increases at an annual pace of about 6 trillion and about 90 billion yen, respectively.

This week in monetary policy: Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Japan & Azerbaijan

    This week - March 10 through March 16 - central banks from 6 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Armenia, Georgia,Ukraine, Moldova, Japan and Azerbaijan.

    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.

    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 11
MAR 10 - MAR 16, 2019:
COUNTRY	DATE	RATE	LATEST	YTD	1 YR AGO
ARMENIA	12-Mar	5.75%	-25	-25	6.00%
GEORGIA	13-Mar	6.75%	-25	-25	7.25%
UKRAINE	14-Mar	18.00%	0	0	17.00%
MOLDOVA	14-Mar	6.50%	0	0	6.50%
JAPAN	15-Mar	-0.10%	0	0	-0.10%
AZERBAIJAN	15-Mar	9.25%	-50	-50	13.00%

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This week in monetary policy: Paraguay, Nigeria, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Norway, ECB and Angola

    This week - January 20 through January 26 - central banks from 8 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Paraguay, Nigeria, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Norway, the European Central Bank and Angola.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.

    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 4
JAN 20 - JAN 26, 2019:
COUNTRY	DATE	RATE	LATEST	YTD	1 YR AGO
PARAGUAY	21-Jan	5.25%	0	0	5.25%
NIGERIA	22-Jan	14.00%	0	0	14.00%
JAPAN	23-Jan	-0.10%	0	0	-0.10%
SOUTH KOREA	24-Jan	1.75%	25	0	1.50%
MALAYSIA	24-Jan	3.25%	0	0	3.00%
NORWAY	24-Jan	0.75%	0	0	0.50%
EURO AREA	24-Jan	0.00%	0	0	0.00%
ANGOLA	25-Jan	16.50%	0	0	18.00%

    www.CentralBankNews.info

This week in monetary policy: Moldova, Japan, Bulgaria, Brazil, Dominican Rep., Czech Rep. and UK

    This week - October 28 through November 3 - central banks from 7 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Moldova, Japan, Bulgaria, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Czech Republic and United Kingdom.

    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.

    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 44
OCT 28 - NOV 3, 2018:
COUNTRY	DATE	RATE	LATEST	YTD	1 YR AGO
MOLDOVA	30-Oct	6.50%	0	0	7.00%
JAPAN	31-Oct	-0.10%	0	0	-0.10%
BULGARIA	31-Oct	0.00%	0	0	0.00%
BRAZIL	31-Oct	6.50%	0	-50	7.50%
DOMINICAN REP	31-Oct	5.50%	0	25	5.25%
CZECH REPUBLIC	1-Nov	1.50%	25	100	0.50%
UNITED KINGDOM	1-Nov	0.75%	0	25	0.50%

    www.CentralBankNews.info