Thursday, October 23, 2014

Turkey holds rates, tight stance until inflation improves

    Turkey's central bank maintained its short term interests rates, including the benchmark one-week repo rate at 8.25 percent, repeating its recent guidance that a "tight monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook."
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)which raised its repo rate by 550 basis points  to 10.0 percent in January and then began cutting it from May through July, said its macro prudential measures and its tight policy stance had a favorable impact on core inflation but elevated food prices were delaying an improvement in the outlook for inflation.
    However, declining oil prices are expected to contribute to lower inflation in 2015, the bank added.
    Turkey's headline inflation rate eased to 8.86 percent in September from 9.54 percent in August and the CBRT has a year-end inflation goal of 7.6 percent.
     Turkey's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.5 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter for annual growth of 2.1 percent, down from 4.7 percent in the first quarter.

      The CBRT issued the following statement:

Philippines holds rate, sees lower inflation 2014-2016

    The central bank of the Philippines maintained its key policy rates at 4.0 percent and said inflation is expected to be lower than expected in the 2014-2016 period due to easing pressures on commodity prices while domestic demand remains resilient.
    Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which raised its rate last month to rein in inflationary expectations, also said the risks to inflation were broadly balanced and it was maintaining its policy stance to allow the tighter policy since March to work its way through the economy.
    Last month BSP also said the favorable prospects for domestic demand allowed its scope for a further adjustment in rates but it dropped this guidance today.
    Instead the central bank said it would remain vigilant against any developments that could affect the outlook for inflation and financial stability and was ready to take appropriate action to safeguard its objectives for price and financial stability.
    The headline inflation rate in the Philippines eased to 4.4 percent in September from 4.9 percent in August and its Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter expanded by 1.9 percent from the first quarter for annual growth of 6.4 percent, up from 5.6 percent in the previous quarter.
    BSP issued the following statement:

Norway holds rate, no guidance for same rate by end-'15

    Norway's central bank retained its policy rate at 1.5 percent, as expected, saying inflation and economic growth are largely as expected but the decline in oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the euro area had increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook.
    Norges Bank, which last cut its rate in March 2012, added that the Norwegian krone currency had also depreciated since its last meeting in September, reflecting the drop in oil prices.
    In September the central bank said it expected the policy rate to remain at the current level until the end of 2015 before it starts to gradually increase. Today it omitted that guidance.
      Norway's headline inflation rate was unchanged in September at 2.1 percent while its Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.9 percent in the second quarter from the first for a contraction of 0.3 percent in comparison with the second quarter of 2013.
    Norges Bank issued the following statement:

“New information suggests that inflation and growth in the Norwegian economy are broadly in line with the September projections. Against this background, the key policy rate remains unchanged. At the same time, developments abroad and the fall in oil prices has increased the uncertainty regarding the outlook for the Norwegian economy”, says Governor Øystein Olsen.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Canada maintains rate on balanced risks to inflation

    Canada's central bank maintained its benchmark target for the overnight rate at 1.0 percent, as widely expected, saying the "risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced" while the risks to financial stability associated with household debt were edging higher.
    The Bank of Canada (BOC), which has maintained its policy rate since September 2010, omitted giving financial markets and investors specific guidance about its expected future policy, a move that was expected following a speech earlier this month in which Governor Stephen Poloz said forward guidance was best reserved for times of crises.
    At its last policy meeting in September, the BOC said it was neutral with respect to the next change in its policy rate, with the timing and direction depending on how new information influences its outlook. Economists expect the BOC to start raising its rates around the middle of next year.
    In today's statement, the BOC said total consumer price inflation was evolving broadly as expected, with underlying inflationary pressures muted but as the economy reaches full capacity in the second half of 2016, both core and total consumer price inflation are projected to be about 2 percent on a sustained basis.
    In its latest monetary policy report, the BOC raised its forecast for inflation marginally from July. Core inflation is forecast to average 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, up from July's projection of 1.8 percent while total CPI inflation rises to 2.2 percent, the same as forecast in July.

Central Bank News Link List - Oct 22, 2014 - Carney’s BOE majority holds firm on heightened euro-area risks

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

Namibia holds rate but still concerned over credit growth

    Namibia's central bank maintained its repo rate at 6.0 percent to "support domestic economic activities" while it monitors the impact of the two interest rate increases in June and August.
    But the Bank of Namibia, which has raised its rate by a total of 50 basis points this year, said it was still concerned over the strong growth in household credit that is largely financing the import of unproductive luxury goods, such as cars, and putting pressure on international reserves.
    The central bank said credit to the private sector increased to an average rate of 15.5 percent in the first eight months of the year from 14.2 percent in the previous eight month period, with strong growth in credit to individuals in overdrafts, loans, advances and installment credit.
    This resulted in a further widening of the trade deficit in January-August period, the bank said, adding that its international reserves remain sufficient to meet its foreign obligations.
    While the central bank did not provide any data for international reserves, it said in August that foreign exchange reserves had declined 15 percent since the start of the year to 15.9 billion Namibian dollars (NAD) in June.
    Data showed that foreign exchange had risen in April to 17.482 billion NAD from 14.595 billion in March.
    In the second quarter of this year, Namibia's trade deficit amounted to 5.649 billion NAD, down from 6.785 billion in the first quarter while the current account deficit in the same period fell to 1.685 billion NAD from 3.216 billion.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Central Bank News Link List - Oct 21, 2014 - Euro drops on speculation ECB may expand stimulus

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Central Bank News Link List - Oct 20, 2014 - Market action reinforces need for policy patience: Fed’s Rosengren

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

This week in monetary policy: Namibia, Canada, Philippines, Turkey and Norway

   This week (October 20 through October 24) five central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Namibia, Canada, the Philippines, Turkey and Norway.
    Following table includes name of the country, its MSCI classification, the date the policy decision will be announced, the current policy rate, and the rate one year ago.

NAMIBIA 21-Oct 6.00% 5.50%
CANADA DM 22-Oct 1.00% 1.00%
PHILIPPINES EM 23-Oct 4.00% 3.50%
TURKEY EM 23-Oct 8.25% 4.50%
NORWAY DM 23-Oct 1.50% 1.50%

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Oct 13-17, 2014: Era of ultra-easy monetary policy in US, UK may be extended

    The era of ultra-easy monetary policy in the U.S. and U.K. may continue for longer than expected as central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic last week signaled to financial markets that Europe’s worsening growth prospects could lead to a delay in any tightening.
    The first sign of a possible shift in U.S. monetary policy came on Oct. 11 when Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said weaker-than-expected foreign growth could lead to the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise.
    Fischer's comments were followed on Oct. 16 by James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, who said the Fed may delay ending its asset purchases as planned later this month in response to declining inflation expectation in the U.S.
    The reaction of financial markets to the comments by Bullard – who won't be voting on monetary policy until 2016 -  were immediate, the latest reminder of just how addicted highly charged financial markets have become to central bank liquidity.
     Talk of a “Yellen put” quickly resurfaced in media with Fischer and Bullard's remarks seen reflecting a more general view among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
    A "Yellen put" is a reference to the belief that the Fed under its new chair will continue the policy known as the “Greenspan Put” and the “Bernanke Put” and ultimately intervene to put a floor under prices if markets suddenly go into freefall.
    The next day, Oct. 17, it was the Bank of England’s (BOE) turn to reassure financial markets that it too was sensitive to  “gloomier” global growth prospects, as its chief economist, Andrew Haldane, said in a speech and to the ITV television network.
    Haldane said the downturn in global growth prospects and lack of inflationary pressures meant that he was now less likely to vote for a rate increase than three months ago and the BOE could wait longer before raising rates.
    As in the U.S., financial markets immediately pushed back the time frame for when they expect the BOE to raise its rates for the first time July 2007.
     U.K. rates are now broadly expected to be raised in September 2015 rather than May while the first hike in U.S. rates is now seen by markets in the fourth quarter of 2015 rather than around the middle of the year.
    In Europe, the focal point of financial markets’ worry over slowing global growth, there were signs that politicians finally grasp the urgent need to help the European Central Bank (ECB) in reviving stalling economic growth.
    German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper that investments to improve competitiveness had to be increased quickly, echoing the International Monetary Fund’s appeal for advanced economies to boost potential growth, partly by investments in ageing infrastructure.
    But Schaeuble also showed why it is so agonizingly difficult for the euro area to overcome “eurosclerosis” – a term created in the late 1970s to describe the excruciatingly slow pace of economic and political integration along with the sluggish pace of economic growth.
    Schaeuble said any investments to improve Germany’s energy grid, roads or railways will not change the government’s promise to balance its budget next year for the first time since 1969, a commitment that severely limits its ability to stimulate demand.
    The message from those central banks that deliberated policy last week echoed the concerns of the Fed and BOE, with inflation generally declining along with growing downside risks from the global economy.
    As in recent months, central banks worldwide are closely following the possibility of increased volatility in global financial conditions from the shift in U.S. monetary policy, a factor that was particularly noted by the Bank of Korea, the Bank of Uganda, the National Bank of Serbia, the Central Bank of Egypt, the Bank of Chile and the Bank of Mozambique.
    Last week also witnessed expected rate cuts by the central banks of Korea and Chile in response to weak economic activity.
   Through the first 42 weeks of this year, the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News have cut their policy rates 53 times, or 13.8 percent of all policy decisions, up from 12 percent at the end of the first half and 12 percent at the end of the first quarter.
    Central banks in advanced economies have accounted for six of the rate reductions, with Israel cutting its rate three times, the European Central Bank twice and Sweden once.
    Following last week’s rate cuts by Chile and South Korea, emerging market central banks have cut rates 24 times, just under half of all the rate cuts worldwide as the slowdown in Europe and China takes a bite out of their exports.
    Meanwhile, rates have been raised 38 times, or 9.9 percent of all policy decisions, up from 9.3 percent at the end of June and 8.7 percent at the end of March.
    Among advanced economies, only New Zealand has raised its rate four times while emerging market central banks have raised rates 18 times, frontier market central banks three times and other central banks 12 times.



COUNTRY MSCI      NEW RATE            OLD RATE         1 YEAR AGO
UGANDA 11.00% 11.00% 12.00%
SINGAPORE DM                  N/A                  N/A                  N/A
SOUTH KOREA EM 2.00% 2.25% 2.50%
SERBIA FM 8.50% 8.50% 10.50%
EGYPT EM 9.25% 9.25% 8.75%
CHILE EM 3.00% 3.25% 4.75%
SRI LANKA FM 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
MOZAMBIQUE 8.25% 8.25% 8.25%

  THIS WEEK (Week 43) five central banks or monetary authorities are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Namibia, Canada, the Philippines, Turkey and Norway.


NAMIBIA 21-Oct 6.00% 5.50%
CANADA DM 22-Oct 1.00% 1.00%
PHILIPPINES EM 23-Oct 4.00% 3.50%
TURKEY EM 23-Oct 8.25% 4.50%
NORWAY DM 23-Oct 1.50% 1.50%