Sunday, January 21, 2018

This week in monetary policy: Ghana, Kenya, Japan, Nigeria, Argentina, Paraguay, Fiji, Malaysia, Norway, Ukraine, euro area and Malawi

    This week (January 21 through January 27) central banks from 12 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Ghana, Kenya, Japan, Nigeria, Argentina, Paraguay, Fiji, Malaysia, Norway, Ukraine, the euro area and Malawi.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 4
JAN 21- JAN 27, 2018:
COUNTRY             DATE               RATE           LATEST              YTD            1 YR AGO       MSCI
GHANA 22-Jan 20.00% -100 0 25.50%          FM
KENYA 22-Jan 10.00% 0 0 10.00%          FM
JAPAN 23-Jan -0.10% 0 0 -0.10%          DM
NIGERIA 23-Jan 14.00% 0 0 14.00%          FM
ARGENTINA 23-Jan 28.00% -75 0 24.75%          FM
PARAGUAY 23-Jan 5.25% 0 0 5.50%
FIJI 25-Jan 0.50% 0 0 0.50%
MALAYSIA 25-Jan 3.00% 0 0 3.00%          EM
NORWAY 25-Jan 0.50% 0 0 0.50%          DM
UKRAINE 25-Jan 14.50% 100 0 14.00%          FM
EURO AREA 25-Jan 0.00% 0 0 0.00%          DM
MALAWI 26-Jan 16.00% -200 0 24.00%


Monday, January 15, 2018

Kazakhstan cuts rate 50 bps, open about further cuts

       Kazakhstan's central bank lowered its base rate by 50 basis points to 9.75 percent, saying this was  "based on the lower level of the actual inflation rate by the end of 2017 in contrast to the forecasted trajectory, the estimates of further deceleration of the inflationary processes, the continuing weak recovery of the domestic demand, and also the favorable trends in the external markets."
       The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) cut its rate by 175 basis points last year but has maintained the rate steady since August. The NBK has now cut the rate by 725 points since embarking on an easing cycle in May 2016.
        The NBK left open the possibility of further rate cuts, saying this would depend on global financial markets, a stabilization of the positive trends in the domestic economy and inflation.
        The central bank said monetary conditions remain neutral in light of an expected deceleration of inflation, with the current rage ensuring that inflation will ease to the bank's target of 5-7 percent, equal to Kazakhstan's long-term potential growth rate.
         In its monetary policy guidelines from December the NBK lowered its inflation target for 2018 to 5-7 percent from 6-8 percent. By end-2019 the NBK targets inflation of 4-6 percent and then by end-2020 inflation of below but close to 4.0 percent.
        Kazakhstan's inflation rate eased to 7.1 percent in December, below the expected 7.5-7.7 percent, from 7.3 percent in November and 7.7 percent in October. The decline was helped by low volatility of the exchange rate of the tenge along with a decline in petrol prices and slower growth in durable goods.
        Disinflationary tendencies are expected to persist until the end of this year and next year although inflation could rise in the first quarter of this year due to changes in some tariffs.
       However, the central bank said this would not require "corrective measures to tighten the monetary policy" as these changes from the supply side, which doesn't react to NBK's policy.
       Oil-exporting Kazakhstan, which stretches from the Caspian Sea to Mongolia, has a recent history of currency volatility and in August 2015 the central bank was forced to abandon its dollar peg policy as the tenge plunged in response to the fall in crude oil prices.
       After sliding from May through October 2017, the tenge has risen in the last two months, helped by the central bank's statement on Oct. 9 that it would sell more than US$1 billion from the assets of the National Fund - known as a rainy day fund - on the domestic market.
       In addition, the NBK's chairman, Daniyar Akishev, was also quoted as saying the state pension fund may also sell some foreign currency. The central bank manages both funds.

       Today the tenge was trading at 328.9 to the U.S. dollar, up 1.2 percent this year and up 2.4 percent since the start of 2017.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

This week in monetary policy: Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey & South Africa

    This week (January 14 through January 20) central banks from 6 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 3
JAN 14- JAN 20, 2018:
COUNTRY             DATE               RATE           LATEST              YTD            1 YR AGO       MSCI
KAZAKHSTAN 15-Jan 10.25% 0 0 12.00%          FM
CANADA 17-Jan 1.00% 0 0 0.50%          DM
SOUTH KOREA 18-Jan 1.50% 25 0 1.25%          EM
INDONESIA 18-Jan 4.25% 0 0 4.75%          EM
TURKEY 18-Jan 8.00% 0 0 8.00%          EM
SOUTH AFRICA 18-Jan 6.75% 0 0 7.00%          EM


UPDATE - 2018 Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Calendar

     (Following item is updated with the central banks of Indonesia, Israel, Kyrgyz Republic, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey)

     Herewith the 2018 calendar for meetings by central bank committees that decide monetary policy.
    This following table includes scheduled meetings for more than 35 of the world's central banks. In the event that meetings by monetary policy committees take place over several days, the date listed below is for the final day of the meetings when decisions are normally announced.
    Central Bank News updates the calendar regularly as some central banks have yet to release their meeting schedule for 2018. Other central banks only release tentative schedules and then finalize their calendar as the meeting nears.

    The latest version of the calendar can always be accessed by clicking here.
    Work is underway to expand the number of central banks covered, including expanding the existing inflation targets table, and global interest rates table. You may replicate the tables in part or in full only if you link to Central Bank News.
               DATE   FX CODE  COUNTRY CENTRAL BANK
        JANUARY 
8-Jan     RON Romania National Bank of Romania
9-Jan     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
10-Jan     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
10-Jan     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
11-Jan     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
11-Jan     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
15-Jan     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
17-Jan     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
18-Jan     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
18-Jan      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
18-Jan     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
18-Jan     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
22-Jan     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
23-Jan     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
23-Jan     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
25-Jan     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
25-Jan     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
25-Jan     NOK Norway Norges Bank
25-Jan     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
25-Jan     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
29-Jan     AOA Angola Bank of Angola
29-Jan     COP Colombia Central Bank of Colombia 
30-Jan     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
30-Jan     MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova
31-Jan     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
31-Jan     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
31-Jan     USD United States Federal Reserve
31-Jan     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Peru lowers rate another 25 bps, may cut further

       Peru's central bank continued its easing campaign by cutting its monetary policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3.0 percent, repeating its recent guidance that it is paying close attention to inflation and would consider further changes to its policy stance if necessary.
       The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has now cut its rate by 125 basis points since embarking on an easing cycle in May 2017 and said today's rate cut took into account the continued fall in inflation and forecasts that it is expected to continue to decline in the first months of 2018.
        Moreover, inflation expectations are continuing to decline and public spending in the final quarter of 2017, particularly investment, grew less than forecast so the gap between actual economic activity and the potential level of growth increased.
        Peru's inflation rate fell to 1.37 percent in December from 1.54 percent in November for the lowest rate since May 2010 and in the bottom of the central bank's target range of 1-3 percent. Excluding food and energy the inflation rate eased to 2.15 percent from 2.23 percent.
        Expectations for inflation in 12 months fell to 2.30 percent in December from 2.48 percent in November, the bank said.
        Peru's inflation rate spiked early last year to 3.97 percent in March following heavy flooding that killed more than 100 people, destroying farm lands and crops. Since then inflation has continued to decline.