Sunday, September 22, 2013

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Sep 16-20, 2013: Fed, India surprise markets, 7 central banks keep rates on hold


    The U.S. Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to postpone the inevitable wind down in asset purchases for a few more months dominated global monetary policy last week, closely followed by India’s equally surprising decision to raise its policy rate.
    Last week nine central banks took policy decisions with seven banks keeping rates on hold (the United States, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Ghana, Norway, Switzerland and South Africa), while Egypt again cut its rate and India raised its rate.
    The previous week 11 central banks took policy decisions, with nine keeping rates on hold (Mozambique, New Zealand, Chile, Korea, Philippines, Serbia, Macedonia, Peru and Russia) while Indonesia again raised its rate along with Pakistan.

    Through the first 38 weeks of this year, central banks have raised rates 21 times, or 5.8 percent of the 365 policy decisions that have been taken by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News, up from 5.6 percent the previous week and 5.2 percent two weeks ago.
    Meanwhile, the ratio of rate cuts continues to drop. Rates have been cut 86 times this year, or 23.6 percent of this year’s policy decisions, down from 23.9 percent the previous week and 24.6 percent two weeks ago.
    Emerging markets account for 43 percent of the 21 rate rises, with Brazil, Indonesia and India accounting for eight of those rate rises.

LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 38) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:
COUNTRYMSCI    NEW RATE          OLD RATE       1 YEAR AGO
SRI LANKAFM7.00%7.00%7.75%
TURKEYEM4.50%4.50%5.75%
GHANA16.00%16.00%15.00%
UNITED STATESDM0.25%0.25%0.25%
NORWAYDM1.50%1.50%1.50%
SWITZERLANDDM0.25%0.25%0.25%
SOUTH AFRICAEM5.00%5.00%5.00%
EGYPTEM8.75%9.25%9.25%

PREVIOUS WEEK’S (WEEK 37) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:
COUNTRYMSCI    NEW RATE          OLD RATE       1 YEAR AGO
MOZAMBIQUE8.75%8.75%10.50%
NEW ZEALANDDM2.50%2.50%2.50%
CHILE5.00%5.00%5.00%
INDONESIAEM7.25%7.00%5.75%
SOUTH KOREAEM2.50%2.50%3.00%
PHILIPPINESEM3.50%3.50%3.75%
SERBIAFM11.00%11.00%10.50%
MACEDONIA3.25%3.25%3.75%
PERUEM4.25%4.25%4.25%
RUSSIAEM8.25%8.25%8.25%
PAKISTANFM9.50%9.00%10.50%

     This week (week 39) 12 central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including those from Israel, Nigeria, Armenia, Hungary, Georgia, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Taiwan, Fiji, Trinidad and Tobago, Rwanda and Colombia.
COUNTRY MSCI           DATE   CURRENT  RATE         1 YEAR AGO
ISRAEL DM 23-Sep 1.25% 2.25%
NIGERIA FM 24-Sep 12.00% 12.00%
ARMENIA 24-Sep 8.50% 8.00%
HUNGARY EM  24-Sep 3.80% 6.50%
GEORGIA 25-Sep 3.75% 5.75%
MOLDOVA 26-Sep 3.50% 4.50%
CZECH REPUBLIC EM 26-Sep 0.05% 0.25%
TAIWAN EM 26-Sep 1.88% 1.88%
FIJI 26-Sep 0.50% 0.50%
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 27-Sep 2.75% 2.75%
COLOMBIA EM 27-Sep 3.25% 4.75%
RWANDA 27-Sep 7.00% 7.50%

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