Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Fed maintains rate but to end QE and raise rate 'soon'

      The U.S. Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged but said "with inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee (the Fed's policy-making body) expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate," a message financial markets expected.
      The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also said it had decided to "reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them an an end in early March," with a reduction in the size of its balance sheet to begin after the benchmark federal funds rate has been raised.
      The Fed kept its target for the federal funds at 0.0 to 0.25 percent, unchanged since March 2020 when the rate was lowered twice in a single month by a total of 1.50 percentage points.
      Today's statement continues the Fed's pivot toward monetary tightening after the policy stance was kept ultra easy for five quarters while economic activity gradually recovered from the devastating hit from the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation rose.
       In November 2021 the Fed finally joined the global trend toward monetary tightening - central banks raised rates 124 times last year to combat rising inflation - and trimmed its monthly purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.
      In December last year the Fed then sped up the pace of monetary tightening further by trimming asset purchases even more and dropped its description of inflation as "transitory" as it raised its forecast for inflation and projected three rate hikes of 25 basis points each in 2022 and another three in 2023.
      With inflation continuing to rise - headline inflation hit 7 percent in December, the highest since June 1982 from 6.8 percent - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell this month kept up his hawkish message, describing inflation as a "severe threat" to a Senate hearing on Jan. 11, boosting market expectations the Fed may even raise rates four times this year.
      Today marks another critical step forward in the normalization of global monetary policy and follows on the heels of the Bank of Canada's message earlier today that interest rates need to be raised.
      As in December, the Fed said economic activity and employment have continued to improve though there are still risks to the outlook from new variants of the virus, such as the Omicron variant.
     However, the Fed also acknowledged inflation is "well above" its 2 percent target and the labor market was strong, the two conditions it had laid out in order to tighten monetary policy.
      To wrap up its asset purchases - known as Quantitative Easing (QE) and used as an addition tool to ease policy -  the Fed said it would purchase at least $20 billion of Treasury securities at least $10 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities in February to continue to smooth market functioning and support the flow of credit.
     However, next month will be the final month of asset purchases that will end in early March.
     The Fed said a reduction of its balance sheet - which contains some $8.8 trillion of bonds and securities - "will commence after the process of increasing the target range for the federal funds rate has begun."

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Fed holds rate but begins to reduce bond purchases

      The U.S. Federal Reserve left its key interest rates steady but joined other central banks worldwide that are rolling back the extraordinary stimulus injected into the global economy last year by trimming the purchase of bonds later this month.
      The Federal Reserve (Fed) left its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.0 - 0.25 percent, unchanged since March last year when it lowered the rate twice by a total of 1.50 percentage points.
      As in September, when the Fed's policy-making arm the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last met, it said economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen though the rise in COVID-19 cases in recent months slowed the recovery of some sectors that were hardest hit by the pandemic.
     "In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities," FOMC said.
     As many other central banks, such as the Bank of Canada, Bank of England and European Central Bank, the Fed used bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, to keep interest rates low and stimulate economic activity.
     But with economic activity worldwide bouncing back from the pandemic and inflation rising, central banks are now tightening the reins and in some cases - such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada - starting by reducing the injection of liquidity into financial markets.
     Starting this month, the Fed will cut its monthly purchases of Treasury securities to $70 billion from $80 billion and the purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities to $35 billion from $40 billion for a total reduction of $15 billion to $105 billion from the previous $120 billion.
     This reduction will continue in December, with the monthly purchase lowered by another $15 billion to a total of $90 billion, with this pace in the reduction of purchases likely to continue unless there is a change in the economic outlook, the FOMC said.
     If the Fed maintains this pace of reducing purchases, it will first end all asset purchases - known as quantitative easing - in eight months, or June 2022. In comparison, the Bank of Canada began lowering its asset purchases in April this year and ended it in seven months later in October.
     Reiterating its recent guidance, the Fed said there were still risks to the economic outlook from the public health crises and it is "prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.
     As in most other countries, inflation has risen faster than expected only a few months ago and in September the Fed raised its forecast for inflation this year and pulled forward the timing of rate hikes.
     Although the Fed is still using to use word "transitory" to describe inflation, it made a slight, but important, change to its statement that signals it is less confident the rise in inflation is purely temporary.
     In today's statement the FOMC inserted the word "expected" about the transitory factors that are leading to elevated inflation as compared with September when it said, matter-of-factly, these factors were transitory.
     The Fed added supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases.

Sunday, October 31, 2021

This week in monetary policy: Australia, Armenia, Malaysia, Malawi, Poland, Albania, USA, Norway, UK & Czech Rep.

     This week - November 1 through November 6 - central banks from 10 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Australia, Armenia, Malaysia, Malawi, Poland, Albania, United States, Norway, United Kingdom and Czech Republic.
     Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the local time a policy decision is announced, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always be accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 44
NOV 1 - NOV 6, 2021
AUSTRALIA2-Nov0.10%14:30000.10%         DM
ARMENIA2-Nov7.25%252004.25%
MALAYSIA3-Nov1.75%001.75%         EM
MALAWI3-Nov12.00%0013.50%
POLAND3-Nov0.50%40400.10%         EM
ALBANIA3-Nov0.50%000.50%
UNITED STATES3-Nov0.25%14:00000.25%         DM
NORWAY4-Nov0.25%10:0025250.00%         DM
UNITED KINGDOM4-Nov0.10%12:00000.10%         DM
CZECH REPUBLIC4-Nov1.50%14:30751250.25%         EM
 
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Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Fed holds policy but pulls forward rate hikes to 2023

     The U.S. central bank left its key interest rates steady along with its level of asset purchases but pulled forward its forecast for raising rates to 2023 from 2024, reflecting the economic recovery and better jobs market from a successful roll-out of vaccines to combat the COVID-19 virus and strong policy support.
      The Federal Reserve (Fed) left its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.0 to 0.25 percent, unchanged since two, rapid-fire rate cuts totaling 1.50 percentage points in March last year at the height of the pandemic.
      In its statement, the Fed's policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), unanimously acknowledged the improved growth prospects for the U.S. and raised its forecast for growth this year to 7.0 percent from the March forecast of 6.5 percent.
     Nevertheless, it added there are still risks to the outlook and those sectors of the economy most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak even if they are improving.
     In 2022 the U.S. economy is seen expanding 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous forecast, and in 2023 by 2.4 percent, up from 2.2 percent. The unemployment rate is seen steadily falling from 4.5 percent this year to 3.8 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023.
     The Fed maintained its guidance for the fed funds rate to remain at the current level until the labour market reaches maximum employment and inflation is on track to reach 2 percent and moderately exceed that for some time.
      It also confirmed its commitment to continue to boost holdings of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities by a total of $120 billion a month until further progress has been made on its goals, with no reference to when it may begin to discuss a tapering of its asset purchases.
     In his press conference, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said FOMC members were starting to turn their attention to scaling back bond purchasing, describing it as a "talking-about-talking-about meeting."
      The Fed acknowledged rising inflation by raising its forecast for its preferred gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) - in its latest projection to 3.0 percent this year from the March forecast of 2.2 percent.
      Inflation in the U.S., and worldwide, has been rising in recent months as economies bounce back faster than expected from the pandemic, unleashing pent-up demand and pushing up a wide range of prices, especially food, metals and commodity prices.
     In April, core PCE in the U.S. rose to 3.1 percent, the highest annual rate since July 1992.
     Although the FOMC projects core PCE will ease to 2.1 percent in 2022 and remain at this level in 2023 - just over its 2.0 percent target - the forecast for the federal funds rate was raised sharply to 0.6 percent from the March forecast of 0.1 percent.
      The Fed's so-called dot plot, which shows the rate forecast for individual FOMC members and regional Fed presidents, showed 7 of 18 members now look to raise rates in 2022, up from 4 in March.
      But in 2023 a clear majority of 13 of the 18 FOMC members expect the rate to rise, up from only 7 in March, with the level of the fed funds rate in the dot plot indicating multiple rate hikes.

Sunday, March 14, 2021

This week in monetary policy: Romania, Armenia, Georgia, Mozambique, USA, Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Taiwan, Norway, Turkey, UK, Egypt, Japan, Russia & Azerbaijan

    (FOLLOWING ITEM IS UPDATED WITH ROMANIA)

    This week - March 15 through March 20 - central banks from 16 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Romania, Armenia, Georgia, Mozambique, United States, Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Taiwan, Norway, Turkey, UK, Egypt, Japan, Russia and Azerbaijan.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the local time a policy decision is announced, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always be accessed by clicking on This Week.


WEEK 11
MAR 15 - MAR 20, 2021:
ROMANIA15-Mar1.25%002.00%
ARMENIA16-Mar5.50%25255.25%
GEORGIA17-Mar8.00%009.00%
MOZAMBIQUE17-Mar13.25%16:0030030012.75%
UNITED STATES17-Mar0.25%14:00000.25%         DM
BRAZIL17-Mar2.00%18:30003.75         EM
COSTA RICA17-Mar0.75%001.25%
INDONESIA18-Mar3.50%-25-254.50%         EM
TAIWAN18-Mar1.125%001.125%         EM
NORWAY18-Mar0.00%10:00000.25%         DM
TURKEY18-Mar17.00%14:00009.75%         EM
UNITED KINGDOM18-Mar0.10%12:00000.10%         DM
EGYPT18-Mar8.25%009.25%         EM
JAPAN19-Mar-0.10%00-0.10%         DM
RUSSIA19-Mar4.25%13:30006.00%         EM
AZERBAIJAN19-Mar6.25%007.25%

Monday, February 15, 2021

Dominican Central Bank Reports Double-Digit Percentage Increase in Remittances - guest column

     The following article was written by Gerelyn Terzo, who is a writer for Sharemoney. She is a Wall Street veteran turned financial journalist, having written for InvestorPlace, Motley Fool, and GlobalAg Investing. She also previously served as Sr. Editorial Researcher at MandateWire, MoneyMedia and Financial Times.
    
     Central Bank News occasionally publishes articles by guest contributors if they are of interest to our readers.


By: Gerelyn Terzo for Sharemoney
 
The Dominican Republic’s economy has been taken on a roller coaster ride since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. For more than two decades, the country’s economy has been on the tear, with an annual GDP growth rate of 6.1% between 2015 and 2019. Much of that momentum has been fueled by remittances, with the percentage of economic expansion driven by personal remittances hovering at 8.3% as of 2019, which is similar to the dynamic in Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka, for example. 
 
Nonetheless, the country could not escape the wrath of the slowdown caused by coronavirus. For 2020, the Dominican is bracing for an economic contraction of 4.3%, with the fallout continuing to reverberate throughout the country for the next two years,according to the World Bank. As of mid-December 2020, the Dominican Republic experienced approximately 2,400 deaths from COVID-19. 
If a turnaround in the pace of remittances in the second half of 2020 is any indication, however, the Dominican Republic’s economy could be well on its way to recovery. The funds received from family members abroad are depended upon for consumption, savings and investing, all of which helps to fuel the economic recovery. After a tough first half of the year, remittances have been looking up since July, when the amount of money transfers surpassed USD 827 million, up 29.3% vs. July 2019. 

Monday, January 25, 2021

This week in monetary policy: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, Nigeria, Kenya, Mozambique, USA, Chile, Angola, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Malawi, Bulgaria & Colombia

    This week - January 25 through January 30 - central banks from 14 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, Nigeria, Kenya, Mozambique, USA, Chile, Angola, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Malawi, Bulgaria and Colombia.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the local time a policy decision is announced, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always be accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 4
JAN 25 - JAN 30, 2020:
KAZAKHSTAN25-Jan9.00%15:00009.25%         FM
KYRGYZSTAN25-Jan5.00%004.25%
HUNGARY26-Jan0.60%000.90%         EM
NIGERIA26-Jan11.50%0013.50%         FM
KENYA27-Jan7.00%008.25%         FM
MOZAMBIQUE27-Jan10.25%16:000012.75%
UNITED STATES27-Jan0.25%14:00001.75%         DM
CHILE27-Jan0.50%18:00001.75%         EM
ANGOLA28-Jan15.50%0015.50%
AZERBAIJAN29-Jan6.25%-2507.25%
MOLDOVA29-Jan2.65%005.50%
MALAWI29-Jan12.00%-150013.50%
BULGARIA29-Jan0.00%000.00%         FM
COLOMBIA29-Jan1.75%004.25%         EM

 

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