It was the first rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) since October 2019 and its key rate has now been lowered by 125 basis points since July last year when it began easing its monetary policy stance preemptively in the face of the threat to the global economy from uncertainty over the trade war between China and the U.S.
In addition to cutting its benchmark rate, BI also lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent and the lending rate by the same amount to 5.50 percent.
To ensure adequate liquidity in the banking system and support the transmission of its accommodative policy stance, BI said it would adjust the calculation of its macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) by expanding the funding and financing purview of foreign bank branches and strengthen the payment system toward fostering economic growth.
"Moreover, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen coordination with the Government and other relevant authorities to maintain economic stability and catalyst domestic demand, while accelerating structural reforms and implementing efforts to mitigate the impact of Covid-19," BI said.
Despite the recent phase 1 trade deal between China and the U.S., which BI said had helped ease global uncertainty, the optimism generated about the global economy has been eroded by the virus, which is expected to dent China's economy and impede the global recovery, "at least during the first quarter of 2020."
BI lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 3.0 percent from an earlier 3.1 percent but raised its forecast for 2021 growth to 3.4 per cent from 3.2 percent.
"Covid-19 has rattled global financial markets, increasing risk and triggering a reversal of global flows from developing countries to safe-have assets and commodities, which has intensified currency risks in emerging market countries," BI said.
Indonesia's economy slowed last year to 5.02 percent from 5.17 percent in 2018 and BI lowered its forecast for this year to a range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent from an earlier forecast of 5.1 - 5.5 percent "due to the potentially muted global economic recovery in light of the recent Covid-19 outbreak, which will impact Indonesia's economy through the tourism, trade and investment channels."
Economic activity in 2021 is expected to accelerate, with growth of 5.2 - 5.6 percent, BI said.
Indonesia's inflation rate has been decelerating for the last five months and fell to 2.68 percent in January due to deflation of administered prices but BI said core inflation remains under control and in line with its policy of anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining an exchange rate of the rupiah that is in line with its fundamental value.
BI expects inflation to remain within its target corridor of 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point, in 2020 and 2021.
After falling in the first 10 months of 2019, Indonesia's rupiah bounced back until late January when it, and other emerging market currencies, were hit by the shift in investors' sentiment following the Covid-19 outbreak.
Today the rupiah eased further in response to the rate cut to trade at 13,745 to the U.S. dollar but remains 1.3 percent higher than the start of 2020.
Bank Indonesia released the following statement:
"The BI Board of Governors agreed on 19th and 20th February 2019 to lower the BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by 25 bps to 4,75%, Deposit Facility (DF) rates lowered 25 bps to 4,00% and Lending Facility (LF) rates lowered 25 bps to 5,50%. Monetary policy remains accommodative and is consistent with controlled inflation in the target corridor, maintained external stability as well as pre-emptive measures to maintain domestic economic growth momentum in the face of a global economic recovery potentially restrained by the recent Covid-19 outbreak. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia will continue to orient monetary operations towards maintaining adequate liquidity and supporting the transmission of an accommodative policy mix. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia will maintain accommodative macroprudential policy to stimulate economic financing with respect to the suboptimal financial cycle, while also adhering to prudential principles. To that end, Bank Indonesia will adjust the calculation of the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) by expanding the funding and financing purview for foreign bank branches towards further national economic advancement. In addition, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen payment system policy towards fostering economic growth through the expansion of QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) acceptance and electronification of social aid program (bansos) disbursements and local government financial transactions. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will monitor global and domestic economic developments in order to fully utilise the room available to implement an accommodative policy mix to maintain controlled inflation and external stability as well as to support economic growth momentum. Moreover, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen coordination with the Government and other relevant authorities to maintain economic stability and catalyse domestic demand, while accelerating structural reforms and implementing efforts to mitigate the impact of Covid-19.
The global economic recovery process has been hampered by the Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) outbreak since the end of January 2020. Nevertheless, the Phase 1 Trade Deal agreed between the United States and China has helped to ease global uncertainty and stoke economic optimism concerning the global economic recovery outlook. The latest reading on a number of global economic indicators, such as consumer confidence, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and export orders, recorded gains from December 2019-January 2020. Optimism has been eroded, however, by the Covid-19 outbreak, which is expected to subdue economic performance in China and impede the global economic recovery process, at least during the first quarter of 2020. Bank Indonesia has revised down its global economic growth projection for 2020 from 3.1% to 3.0% before accelerating to 3.4% in 2021, up from the 3.2% projected previously for 2021. Covid-19 has rattled global financial markets, increasing risk and triggering a reversal of global flows from developing countries to safe-haven assets and commodities, which has intensified currency risk in emerging market countries. Moving forward, efforts to contain Covid-19 demand vigilance due to the potential impact on economic growth, trade volume and international commodity prices as well as capital flows to and from developing countries, including Indonesia.
Efforts are required to stimulate national economic growth and ensure economic resilience in the face of a potentially restrained global economic recovery. In 2019, national economic growth was solid at 5.02% despite declining from 5.17% in 2018. Solid domestic demand remains a key driver of economic growth, while exports languish on compressed global demand and sliding commodity prices. Regionally, solid domestic demand is supported by increasing inter-regional trade, such as in Sumatra. In addition, economic growth in Kalimantan and Bali-Nusa Tenggara has been maintained as exports of primary commodities improve. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia projects lower economic growth in 2020 at 5.0-5.4%, downgraded from 5.1-5.5%, before accelerating in 2021 to 5.2-5.6%. Bank Indonesia has revised down its projection for 2020 due to the potentially muted global economic recovery in light of the recent Covid-19 outbreak, which will impact Indonesia's economy through the tourism, trade and investment channels. Nonetheless, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen coordination with the government and other relevant authorities to strengthen the sources, structure and speed of economic growth, while attracting investment through infrastructure projects and implementation of the Omnibus Bill on Job Creation and Taxation.
Indonesia's balance of payments has continued gaining strength, thereby bolstering external resilience. For 2019 as a whole, the overall balance of payments recorded a USD4.7 billion surplus after experiencing a USD7.1 billion deficit in 2018. The gain comes amidst a significant capital and financial account surplus in line with maintained national economic performance, highly attractive financial markets and less global financial market uncertainty. Furthermore, the current account deficit has also declined from 2.94% of GDP in 2018 to just 2.72% of GDP in 2019. The latest reading in January 2020 points to a net inflow of foreign capital to the domestic financial markets totalling USD6.3 billion. At the beginning of February 2020, however, foreign capital inflows, portfolio investment in particular, experienced a correction in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, the trade balance recorded a USD0.86 billion deficit in the reporting period in line with sluggish exports due to global economic headwinds. The position of reserve assets at the end of January 2020 stood at USD131.7 billion, equivalent to 7.8 months of imports or 7.5 months of imports and servicing government external debt, which is well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will constantly strengthen coordination with the government in order to bolster external sector resilience, including attracting foreign direct investment, and controlling the current account deficit, which is projected in the 2.5-3.0% of GDP range in 2020 and 2021.
The rupiah exchange rate remains stable and consistent with the currency's fundamental value, underpinned by a robust balance of payments. As of 19th February 2020, the rupiah had strengthened by an average of 0.27% compared to the January 2020 level, despite depreciating 0.24% (ptp) on the level recorded at the end of January 2020. A softer rupiah at the beginning of February 2020 was triggered by negative sentiment surrounding Covid-19, before quickly stabilising due to the foreign exchange supplied by exporters as well as maintained foreign capital inflows. The rupiah appreciated in January 2020 by an average of 2.13% compared with the December 2019 average level. Looking forward, Bank Indonesia predicts rupiah stability in line with the currency's fundamental value and maintained market mechanisms. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia will continue to accelerate financial market deepening, targeting the money market and foreign exchange market in particular, in order to support exchange rate policy effectiveness and strengthen domestic financing.
Low and stable inflation was maintained in 2019, thus supporting economic stability. CPI inflation in January 2020 stood at 0.39% (mtm) or 2.68% (yoy), influenced by controlled core inflation, administered prices (AP) deflation and a slight build-up of inflationary pressures on volatile foods (VF). Core inflation has remained under control in line with policy consistency by Bank Indonesia to anchor rational inflation expectations, including maintaining rupiah exchange rates in line with the currency's fundamental value. Administered prices experienced deflationary pressures in the reporting period due to lower special fuel prices and the normalisation of airfares after the recent spike in response to high demand during the festive period. In contrast, VF inflation intensified due, amongst others, to disruptions affecting the production and distribution of various volatile foods, triggered by widespread flooding in various regions. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will consistently maintain price stability and strengthen policy coordination with the central and local governments in order to maintain low and stable inflation within the target corridor for 2020 and 2021, namely 3.0%±1%.
Effective transmission of the accommodative monetary policy stance has been strengthened by adequate liquidity in the banking industry. Liquidity in the money market and banking industry remains adequate, as reflected by a high average daily transaction volume in the interbank money market during January 2020 at Rp15.12 trillion, together with a high ratio of liquid assets to deposits of 20.86% recorded in December 2019. Monetary policy transmission through the interest rate channel to the money market remains effective, as reflected by a further 103bps decline in the overnight interbank rate to 4.81% and a 119bps decrease in the 1-week JIBOR to a level of 5.05% since the end of June 2019, before Bank Indonesia initiated policy rate reductions in July 2019. In addition, transmission of lower interest rates to the banking industry continues, with the weighted average deposit rate recorded at 6.22% in January 2020, falling 61bps since the end of June 2019. On the other hand, lending rates have come down 29bps to 10.13% in the same period. Meanwhile, growth of narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) in December 2019 followed the current economic growth trend at 7.43% (yoy) and 6.54% (yoy) respectively. Bank Indonesia will continue to ensure adequate liquidity and enhance money market efficiency, while strengthening transmission of the accommodative policy mix.
Financial system stability has been maintained despite the bank intermediation function still demanding attention. Financial system stability was reflected by a high Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 23.31% in December 2019 coupled with a low level of non-performing loans (NPL) at 2.53% (gross) or 1.18% (nett). Meanwhile, credit growth remains sluggish, decelerating from 7.05% (yoy) in November 2019 to 6.08% (yoy) in December 2019. Furthermore, deposit growth is also suboptimal, declining from 6.72% (yoy) in November 2019 to 6.54% (yoy) in December 2019. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to stimulate the bank intermediation function in order to underpin economic growth momentum. Bank Indonesia projects growth of outstanding loans disbursed by the banking industry in 2020 in the 9-11% range, revised down from 10-12% previously in line with the downgraded projection for economic growth in 2020. On the other hand, Bank Indonesia projects deposit growth in 2020 and 2021 in the 8-10% range. Bank Indonesia will maintain an accommodative macroprudential policy stance and strengthen coordination with other relevant authorities in order to maintain financial system stability and catalyse the bank intermediation function.
Payment system availability, both cash and non-cash, remains uninterrupted. The position of currency in circulation grew 6.61% (yoy) in January 2020, while non-cash payment transactions using ATM/debit cards, credit cards and electronic money declined 0.76% (yoy) over the same period, dominated by ATM/debit cards with a 93.16% share. Vibrant growth of e-money transactions was maintained in January 2020 at 172.85% (yoy), evidencing greater public uptake of digital currency. Bank Indonesia continuously strengthens payment system policy to support national economic growth momentum through digital economic and financial transformation. Bank Indonesia is planning to organise National QRIS Week 2020 throughout all provinces of the archipelago in order to expand QRIS acceptance. Furthermore, coordination with the government will be strengthened to accelerate transaction electronification, social aid program (bansos) disbursements and local government financial transactions in particular. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to maintain the continuity of a fast, simple, affordable, secure and reliable payment system, supported by integrated supervision and strong consumer protection."
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