Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Brazil maintains rate, takes its time to observe economy

     Brazil's central bank kept its benchmark Selic rate steady at 6.50 percent, saying the risk from economic slack and thus lower inflation had risen marginally but the overall balance of risks are symmetric as the risk premia for Brazil could rise and push up inflation if expectations for economic reforms are dashed or the outlook for emerging economies deteriorates.
     The Central Bank of Brazil, which has maintained its rate since shifting to a neutral stance in March 2018 after a 2-1/2-year, 775-basis point easing cycle, reiterated its guidance from March that the next move in rates depends on "the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and on inflation projections and expectations."
      Copom, the central bank's policy-setting committee, signaled it is likely to keep the Selic rate steady for some time, saying it is important to observe how Brazil's economy behaves over time without the remaining effects of the various shocks that hit the economy last year, and especially with an easing of the uncertainty to which the economy is exposed to.
     Copom said "this assessment takes time and should not be completed in the short run."
     The central bank reiterated the global outlook remains challenging but it still assumes a gradual economic recovery will continue even if the softening seen end-2018 continued in early 2019.
     In March the central bank lowered its 2019 growth forecast to 2.0 percent from 2.4 percent forecast in December due to weaker exports and domestic demand.
     In the fourth quarter of last year Brazil's gross domestic product grew 1.1 percent, down from 1.3 percent in the third quarter, while inflation jumped to 4.58 percent in March from 3.89 percent in February, in line with its target of 4.5 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.
     "The Committee judged that various measures of underlying inflation are running at appropriate levels," Copom said, adding inflation expectations from the latest Focus survey are around 4.0 percent for 2019 and 2020, and 3.75 percent for 2021.
      Based on the survey, Copom's inflation projections look to 4.1 percent inflation for 2019 and 3.8 percent for 2020, assuming the Selic rate ends 2019 at 6.50 percent before rising to 7.50 percent during 2020.
      Brazil's real has been depreciating since the beginning of 2018, with the most recent spate of easing beginning in February this year following a rise in January.
      The real firmed in response to Copom's decision, trading at 3.93 to the U.S. dollar, down 1.3 percent this year.


      The Central Bank of Brazil issued the following statement:


"The Copom unanimously decided to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% p.a.
The following observations provide an update of the Copom's baseline scenario:
Recent data on economic activity suggest that the softening observed at the end of 2018 continued in early 2019. The Copom's baseline scenario assumes that the process of gradual economic recovery will resume;
The global outlook remains challenging. On the one hand, the risks associated with normalization of interest rates in some advanced economies in the short and medium runs are low. On the other hand, the risks associated with a slowdown in global growth remain;
The Committee judges that various measures of underlying inflation are running at appropriate levels. This includes the components that are most sensitive to the business cycle and monetary policy;
Inflation expectations for 2019, 2020 and 2021 collected by the Focus survey are around 4.0%, 4.0% and 3.75%, respectively; and
The Copom's inflation projections in the scenario with interest rate and exchange rate paths extracted from the Focus survey stand around 4.1% for 2019 and 3.8% for 2020. This scenario assumes a path for the Selic rate that ends 2019 at 6.5% p.a. and increases to 7.5% p.a. over the course of 2020. It also assumes a path for the exchange rate that ends 2019 at R$/US$ 3.75, and 2020 at R$/US$ 3.80. In the scenario with a constant interest rate, at 6.5% p.a., and a constant exchange rate, at R$/US$ 3.95*, the projections for 2019 and 2020 stand around 4.3% and 4.0%, respectively.
The Committee emphasizes that risks around its baseline scenario remain in both directions.  On the one hand, (i) the high level of economic slack may lead to a lower-than-expected prospective inflation trajectory. On the other hand, (ii) frustration of expectations regarding the continuation of reforms and necessary adjustments in the Brazilian economy may affect risk premia and increase the path for inflation over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy. Risk (ii) intensifies in case (iii) the global outlook for emerging economies deteriorates. The Committee judges that, although the risk associated with economic slack has increased at the margin, the balance of risks is symmetric.
Taking into account the baseline scenario, the balance of risks, and the wide array of available information, the Copom unanimously decided to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% p.a. The Committee judges that this decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and the associated balance of risks, and is consistent with convergence of inflation to target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2019 and, to a greater extent, 2020.
The Copom reiterates that economic conditions prescribe stimulative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level.
The Copom emphasizes that the evolution of reforms and necessary adjustments in the Brazilian economy is essential to maintain low inflation in the medium and long run, for the reduction of its structural interest rate, and for sustainable economic recovery. The Committee stresses that the perception of continuation of the reform agenda affects current expectations and macroeconomic projections.
In the Copom's assessment, the evolution of the baseline scenario and of the balance of risks prescribes keeping the Selic rate at its current level. The Committee deems important to observe how the Brazilian economy will behave over time, without the remaining effects of the various shocks that hit the economy last year and, especially, with reduction of the degree of uncertainty to which the Brazilian economy remains exposed. The Copom judges that this assessment takes time and should not be completed in the short run. The Copom emphasizes that the next steps in the conduct of monetary policy will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and on inflation projections and expectations.
The Copom asserts that caution, serenity, and perseverance in monetary policy decisions, even in the face of volatile scenarios, have been instrumental in pursuing its primary objective of keeping the inflation path towards the targets.
The following members of the Committee voted for this decision: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto (Governor), Bruno Serra Fernandes, Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Carolina de Assis Barros, João Manoel Pinho de Mello, Maurício Costa de Moura, Otávio Ribeiro Damaso, Paulo Sérgio Neves de Souza, and Tiago Couto Berriel."



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