Moldova's central bank cut its basic interest rate by 100 basis points to 8.0 percent, along with its other policy rates, to boost demand and help bring inflation to its target over the medium term.
It is the first rate cut by the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) since a 50 basis point cut in October 2016 as it slowly continues the easing cycle begun in February 2016 when it began cutting the rate from 19.50 percent.
Moldova's inflation rate rose to 7.4 percent in May from 6.6 percent in April, above the NBM's target range of 5.0 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage points. Core inflation in May was 4.8 percent, down from 4.9 percent in the previous month.
The central bank said the rise in inflation was due to short-term shocks but aggregate demand remains moderate and "does not create additional inflationary pressures," the NBM said, adding that data over the last two to three months show moderating economic activity and lower medium-term inflationary pressure.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
Czech holds rate, sees rates rising in line with forecast
The central bank of the Czech Republic left its two-week benchmark repo rate at 0.05 percent in a unanimous decision by its board and said "it is likely that the CNB will increase interest rates in line with the prediction" in view of the current forecast and balance of risks.
In April the Czech National Bank (CNB) took the first step toward normalizing its monetary policy by abandoning its commitment from November 2013 to keep the koruna from exceeding to 27 to the euro as an additional tool to stave off deflation.
This move to cap the koruna's exchange rate followed the CNB's cut to the current level of the repo rate, essentially zero, in November 2012.
"Interest rate increases will be conditional on the evolution of all key macroeconomic variables, including the exchange rate of the koruna," the CBN said.
In May the CNB forecast that interest rates will move higher in the third quarter of this year and 2018, with the 3-month PRIBOR (the Prague interbank market rate) rising to 0.8 percent from 0.5 percent this year. This 2018 forecast was lowered from its previous forecast of 1.1 percent, with any rate increases dampened until mid-2018 due to asset purchases by the European Central Bank.
"The CNB Bank Board assessed the risks to the current inflation forecast at the monetary policy horizon as being slightly inflationary," the CBN said, adding that in the quarters ahead the exchange rate of the koruna may be weaker than forecast due to the closing of koruna positions by investors.
In contrast, lower oil prices pose an anti-inflationary risk to the forecast," the CNB said.
In April the Czech National Bank (CNB) took the first step toward normalizing its monetary policy by abandoning its commitment from November 2013 to keep the koruna from exceeding to 27 to the euro as an additional tool to stave off deflation.
This move to cap the koruna's exchange rate followed the CNB's cut to the current level of the repo rate, essentially zero, in November 2012.
"Interest rate increases will be conditional on the evolution of all key macroeconomic variables, including the exchange rate of the koruna," the CBN said.
In May the CNB forecast that interest rates will move higher in the third quarter of this year and 2018, with the 3-month PRIBOR (the Prague interbank market rate) rising to 0.8 percent from 0.5 percent this year. This 2018 forecast was lowered from its previous forecast of 1.1 percent, with any rate increases dampened until mid-2018 due to asset purchases by the European Central Bank.
"The CNB Bank Board assessed the risks to the current inflation forecast at the monetary policy horizon as being slightly inflationary," the CBN said, adding that in the quarters ahead the exchange rate of the koruna may be weaker than forecast due to the closing of koruna positions by investors.
In contrast, lower oil prices pose an anti-inflationary risk to the forecast," the CNB said.
Fiji maintains rate as inflation decelerates further
Fiji's central bank left its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 0.50 percent, unchanged since October 2011, noting that inflation in May fell to the lowest level since March 2016 and barring any changes in the national budget, the year-end inflation forecast for 2017 remains at 3.0 percent.
Fiji's inflation rate rose sharply following Tropical Cyclone Winston in February 2016, which hit the supply of fresh fruit and vegetables and led to a tripling of the price of the national drink of kava.
But after rising to 6.8 percent by January this year, Fiji's headline inflation rate has decelerated as food prices have come down and fell to 2.5 percent in May from 4.1 percent in April.
Ariff Ali, acting governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF), said foreign reserves stood at US$2.278 billion as of June 28, up from $2.240 billion on May 25, and sufficient to cover 5.7 months of imports and are expected to remain comfortable until the end of the year.
"The dual monetary policy objectives remain intact with no risk in the immediate term," said Ali, who took over from Barry Whiteside when his term ended in late May.
Whiteside had been governor of RBF since 2011 and Ali was appointed by the prime minister for three months or until a permanent appointment as governor has been made.
While the International Monetary Fund sets a benchmark of 3 months of reserves to cover imports, Fiji likes to have a buffer above this benchmark as the island is prone to natural disasters, which can affect its exports and tourism, as well as external shocks that can increase its import bill and thus reserves.
In addition to it its own reserves, the central bank has allowed some non-bank financial institutions to invest offshore and at the end of July 2016 those reserves amounted to more than $500 million, according to Ali's presentation on the bank's January-July 2016 report on June 8 this year.
The asset portfolio of the entire Fijian financial system amounted to just over $16 billion as of July 2016, almost twice the size of the island's Gross Domestic Product, with banks accounting for 53 percent of those assets, the Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF) for 31 percent and the insurance industry for 9 percent.
FNPF provides retirement services in Fiji and is one of the country's largest property owners and a major investor in several other firms, such as Vodafone Fiji, Amalgamated Telecom Holdings and Home Finance Company Bank.
After slowing to estimated growth of 2.0 percent last year due to the damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Winston - the worst ever cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere - Ali said Fiji's economy is on track to expand by 3.8 percent this year due to higher demand coupled by strong performance in the tourism and electricity sectors, expected increases in manufacturing, construction, and cane and sugar output.
Business confidence remains strong, Ali said, adding private sector credit rose by 14.1 percent in the year to May.
In May the RBF revised upward its 2017 growth projection to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent and maintained its 2018 growth forecast of 3.0 percent. For 2019 the economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent.
Fiji's inflation rate rose sharply following Tropical Cyclone Winston in February 2016, which hit the supply of fresh fruit and vegetables and led to a tripling of the price of the national drink of kava.
But after rising to 6.8 percent by January this year, Fiji's headline inflation rate has decelerated as food prices have come down and fell to 2.5 percent in May from 4.1 percent in April.
Ariff Ali, acting governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF), said foreign reserves stood at US$2.278 billion as of June 28, up from $2.240 billion on May 25, and sufficient to cover 5.7 months of imports and are expected to remain comfortable until the end of the year.
"The dual monetary policy objectives remain intact with no risk in the immediate term," said Ali, who took over from Barry Whiteside when his term ended in late May.
Whiteside had been governor of RBF since 2011 and Ali was appointed by the prime minister for three months or until a permanent appointment as governor has been made.
While the International Monetary Fund sets a benchmark of 3 months of reserves to cover imports, Fiji likes to have a buffer above this benchmark as the island is prone to natural disasters, which can affect its exports and tourism, as well as external shocks that can increase its import bill and thus reserves.
In addition to it its own reserves, the central bank has allowed some non-bank financial institutions to invest offshore and at the end of July 2016 those reserves amounted to more than $500 million, according to Ali's presentation on the bank's January-July 2016 report on June 8 this year.
The asset portfolio of the entire Fijian financial system amounted to just over $16 billion as of July 2016, almost twice the size of the island's Gross Domestic Product, with banks accounting for 53 percent of those assets, the Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF) for 31 percent and the insurance industry for 9 percent.
FNPF provides retirement services in Fiji and is one of the country's largest property owners and a major investor in several other firms, such as Vodafone Fiji, Amalgamated Telecom Holdings and Home Finance Company Bank.
After slowing to estimated growth of 2.0 percent last year due to the damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Winston - the worst ever cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere - Ali said Fiji's economy is on track to expand by 3.8 percent this year due to higher demand coupled by strong performance in the tourism and electricity sectors, expected increases in manufacturing, construction, and cane and sugar output.
Business confidence remains strong, Ali said, adding private sector credit rose by 14.1 percent in the year to May.
In May the RBF revised upward its 2017 growth projection to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent and maintained its 2018 growth forecast of 3.0 percent. For 2019 the economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Belarus cuts rate by 100 bps for sixth month in a row
The central bank of Belarus
cut its benchmark refinancing rate by 100 basis points for the sixth month in a
row and said the possibility of further rate cuts would be determined by the
continued easing of the risks to inflation.
The
National Bank of the Republic of Belarus cut its refi rate to 12.0 percent from
13.0 percent and has now cut it by 600 basis this year. Since March 2016, when
the central bank began lowering rates from 25 percent, the rate has be cut by
1,300 points.
The
central bank said inflation expectations had continued to ease and this would
have a favorable effect on the rise in prices in coming months.
It
added the average annual growth of broad money was around 5 percent in June and
the continued net supply of foreign currency to the domestic market had a
positive impact on International reserves and ensured a stable exchange rate of
the Belarus ruble.
Inflation in Belarus was estimated by the central bank at 6.2 percent,
slightly up from 6.1 percent in May but down from 6.3 percent in April. Core
inflation confirmed the growing stability of decelerating inflation and was
estimated at 5.3 percent in June.
Last
month the central bank said it expected inflation to remain slightly above 6
percent in coming months.
The
Belarus ruble fell steadily, and at times very rapidly, from early 2011 until
it hit a record low of just over 22,00 to the U.S. dollar in February 2016.
Since then it has been appreciating and was trading at 19,319 to the dollar
today, up 1.74 percent since the beginning of 2017.
Kyrgyzstan maintains rate to stimulate economy
The central bank of the Kyrgyz Republic left its key discount rate at 5.0 percent, saying keeping the rate at this level will continue to stimulate economic activity in the absence of external and internal inflationary risks.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) has kept its rate steady since December 2016 when it last cut it as part of a 500-basis-point easing cycle that began in March 2016.
The central bank added its board had taken the decision on June 27 and its decision would take effect on June 28. The board was originally scheduled to meet June 26.
As of June 16, Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate rose to 4.4 percent and is expected to remain within the central bank's target range of 5 percent to 7 percent, NBKR said.
In May and April the inflation rate was steady at 3.8 and the central bank said the gradual recovery in demand is having an impact on inflation with a rise in prices for fruit, vegetables and services having the greatest impact on prices in June.
Between September and December 2016 Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate was negative.
The central bank also noted the positive economic trends, with growth up 6.8 percent in the January-May period on continued recovery in domestic consumption.
Excluding the Kumtor gold mine, Gross Domestic Product grew 2.9 percent, the NBKR said, adding output in the main sectors in the economy is growing, helped by the availability of credit, declining interest rates on loans in domestic and foreign currencies.
In the first quarter of this year GDP grew by an annual 7.8 percent, up from 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 2.0 percent in the third. In the previous two quarters GDP was negative.
In April the International Monetary Fund forecast 2017 growth of 3.5 percent growth as external and internal demand continue to improve.
The domestic foreign exchange market remains stable, with the exchange rate of the som up by 0.9 percent between the start of this year and June 22, the central bank said, adding it didn't intervene in the foreign exchange market during the month of June.
The IMF has recommended the NBKR should only intervene to mitigate excessive volatility.
The som was trading at 68.86 to the U.S. dollar today, up 0.49 percent this year.
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The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) has kept its rate steady since December 2016 when it last cut it as part of a 500-basis-point easing cycle that began in March 2016.
The central bank added its board had taken the decision on June 27 and its decision would take effect on June 28. The board was originally scheduled to meet June 26.
As of June 16, Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate rose to 4.4 percent and is expected to remain within the central bank's target range of 5 percent to 7 percent, NBKR said.
In May and April the inflation rate was steady at 3.8 and the central bank said the gradual recovery in demand is having an impact on inflation with a rise in prices for fruit, vegetables and services having the greatest impact on prices in June.
Between September and December 2016 Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate was negative.
The central bank also noted the positive economic trends, with growth up 6.8 percent in the January-May period on continued recovery in domestic consumption.
Excluding the Kumtor gold mine, Gross Domestic Product grew 2.9 percent, the NBKR said, adding output in the main sectors in the economy is growing, helped by the availability of credit, declining interest rates on loans in domestic and foreign currencies.
In the first quarter of this year GDP grew by an annual 7.8 percent, up from 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 2.0 percent in the third. In the previous two quarters GDP was negative.
In April the International Monetary Fund forecast 2017 growth of 3.5 percent growth as external and internal demand continue to improve.
The domestic foreign exchange market remains stable, with the exchange rate of the som up by 0.9 percent between the start of this year and June 22, the central bank said, adding it didn't intervene in the foreign exchange market during the month of June.
The IMF has recommended the NBKR should only intervene to mitigate excessive volatility.
The som was trading at 68.86 to the U.S. dollar today, up 0.49 percent this year.
www.CentralBankNews.info
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Rwanda cuts rate 25 bps as inflation decelerates
Rwanda's central bank eased its policy stance for the third quarter of this year by cutting its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.0 percent, citing decelerating inflation, easing pressure on the exchange rate of the Rwandan franc and development in monetary aggregates.
It is the first change in rates by the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) this year and follows a similar-sized rate cut in December last year in what was the first easing since June 2014.
Rwanda's inflation rate eased to 11.7 percent in May from 12.9 percent in April, the third consecutive month of decelerating inflation and the BNR said the "trend is expected to continue in 2017H2."
The BNR added the decline in inflation was reflected in food, housing and transport while imported inflation dropped from 8.8 percent in the first quarter to 7.4 percent in April and 6.8 percent in May while core inflation declined from 5.5 percent in the first quarter to 4.8 percent and 4.9 percent in the same period.
Rwanda's economy grew by 5.9 percent last year and in the first five months of this year the CIEA composite index, total turnover and credit to the private sector grew by 8.6 percent, 16.1 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively from the same 2016 period.
"Pressures on the FRW exchange rate have significantly eased following the improvement in the trade balance coupled with the completion of some big projects," the central bank said.
As of June 22, the franc had depreciated by 1.15 percent relative to December 2016 compared with a depreciation of 4.6 percent in the same 2016 period, and is expected to be below the initial projection for 2017, the BNR said.
Today the franc was trading around 840 to the U.S. dollar, down 3.4 percent this year.
Last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a preliminary agreement with Rwanda's government, saying it expects economic growth to recover gradually this year due to good rains and expanding domestic food production which should help inflation decelerate as food supply constraints recede.
www.CentralBankNews.info
It is the first change in rates by the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) this year and follows a similar-sized rate cut in December last year in what was the first easing since June 2014.
Rwanda's inflation rate eased to 11.7 percent in May from 12.9 percent in April, the third consecutive month of decelerating inflation and the BNR said the "trend is expected to continue in 2017H2."
The BNR added the decline in inflation was reflected in food, housing and transport while imported inflation dropped from 8.8 percent in the first quarter to 7.4 percent in April and 6.8 percent in May while core inflation declined from 5.5 percent in the first quarter to 4.8 percent and 4.9 percent in the same period.
Rwanda's economy grew by 5.9 percent last year and in the first five months of this year the CIEA composite index, total turnover and credit to the private sector grew by 8.6 percent, 16.1 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively from the same 2016 period.
"Pressures on the FRW exchange rate have significantly eased following the improvement in the trade balance coupled with the completion of some big projects," the central bank said.
As of June 22, the franc had depreciated by 1.15 percent relative to December 2016 compared with a depreciation of 4.6 percent in the same 2016 period, and is expected to be below the initial projection for 2017, the BNR said.
Today the franc was trading around 840 to the U.S. dollar, down 3.4 percent this year.
Last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a preliminary agreement with Rwanda's government, saying it expects economic growth to recover gradually this year due to good rains and expanding domestic food production which should help inflation decelerate as food supply constraints recede.
www.CentralBankNews.info
Saturday, June 24, 2017
This week in monetary policy: Kyrgyzstan, Argentina, Czech Republic, Moldova, Fiji, Angola, Bulgaria and Dominican Republic
This week (June 25 through July 1) central banks from 8 countries or
jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Kyrgyz Republic, Argentina, Czech Republic, Moldova, Fiji, Angola, Bulgaria and the Dominican Republic.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy
decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the
change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the
country’s MSCI classification.
The
table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always
accessed by clicking on This Week.
| WEEK 26 | ||||||
| JUN 25 - JUL 1, 2017: | ||||||
| COUNTRY | DATE | RATE | LATEST | YTD | 1 YR AGO | MSCI |
| KYRGYZSTAN | 26-Jun | 5.00% | 0 | 0 | 6.00% | |
| ARGENTINA | 27-Jun | 26.25% | 0 | 150 | 30.75% | FM |
| CZECH REP. | 29-Jun | 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 0.05% | EM |
| MOLDOVA | 29-Jun | 9.00% | 0 | 0 | 13.00% | |
| FIJI | 29-Jun | 0.50% | 0 | 0 | 0.50% | |
| ANGOLA | 30-Jun | 16.00% | 0 | 0 | 16.00% | |
| BULGARIA | 30-Jun | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | FM |
| DOMINICAN REP. | 30-Jun | 5.75% | 0 | 25 | 5.00% | |
Monday, June 19, 2017
Uganda cuts rate 100 bps on subdued growth prospects
Uganda's central bank lowered its Central Bank Rate (CBR) by a further 100 basis points to 10.0 percent, saying continued monetary easing is appropriate as prospects for economic growth remain weak and inflationary pressures are subdued.
The Bank of Uganda (BOU) has now cut its rate by 200 basis points this year following cuts of 50 points in February and April. Since April 2016, when the BOU began its easing cycle, the key rate has been cut by 7 percentage points.
The rate cut "will be consistent with achieving the core inflation target of 5 percent over the medium-term and will also support the recovery of real output in the economy," the BOU said.
Uganda's inflation rate rose to 7.2 percent in May from 6.8 percent in April due to a rise in food prices along with higher energy prices. Food crop inflation accelerated to 23.1 percent from 21.6 percent in April as prolonged drought has led to poor harvests.
But core inflation has remained relatively stable, rising to 5.1 percent in May from 4.9 percent in April, as the "relative stability of the exchange rate and subdued domestic demand have contributed to the dampening of core inflationary pressures over the last 12 months," the central bank said.
The outlook for inflation has not changed substantially since the BOU's previous policy decision in April, with the central bank considering the jump in inflation in the last six months as temporary and expected to wane in the first quarter of the next financial year of 2017/18, which begins July 1.
"In line with the previous forecast, inflation is forecast to stabilize around the target of 5 percent in 12 months," the BOU said.
The fall in food and cash crops from drought, along with slow implementation of public investment projects and weak private sector credit, has hit Uganda's economy, which slowed to growth of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2016 from 2.0 percent in the third quarter.
In the full 2016/17 financial year, growth was estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent, down from 4.7 percent in 2015/16. In February the BOU cut its growth estimate for 2016/17 to 4.5 percent from July's forecast of 5 percent and then in April said 4.5 percent was unlikely to be reached.
In the 2017/18 financial year, the BOU expects an improvement of growth to 5.0 percent, still down from its April forecast of 5.5 percent, as public investments pick up, along with foreign direct investment, particular in the oil sector, and private sector credit recovers as lending rates decline.
The Bank of Uganda (BOU) has now cut its rate by 200 basis points this year following cuts of 50 points in February and April. Since April 2016, when the BOU began its easing cycle, the key rate has been cut by 7 percentage points.
The rate cut "will be consistent with achieving the core inflation target of 5 percent over the medium-term and will also support the recovery of real output in the economy," the BOU said.
Uganda's inflation rate rose to 7.2 percent in May from 6.8 percent in April due to a rise in food prices along with higher energy prices. Food crop inflation accelerated to 23.1 percent from 21.6 percent in April as prolonged drought has led to poor harvests.
But core inflation has remained relatively stable, rising to 5.1 percent in May from 4.9 percent in April, as the "relative stability of the exchange rate and subdued domestic demand have contributed to the dampening of core inflationary pressures over the last 12 months," the central bank said.
The outlook for inflation has not changed substantially since the BOU's previous policy decision in April, with the central bank considering the jump in inflation in the last six months as temporary and expected to wane in the first quarter of the next financial year of 2017/18, which begins July 1.
"In line with the previous forecast, inflation is forecast to stabilize around the target of 5 percent in 12 months," the BOU said.
The fall in food and cash crops from drought, along with slow implementation of public investment projects and weak private sector credit, has hit Uganda's economy, which slowed to growth of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2016 from 2.0 percent in the third quarter.
In the full 2016/17 financial year, growth was estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent, down from 4.7 percent in 2015/16. In February the BOU cut its growth estimate for 2016/17 to 4.5 percent from July's forecast of 5 percent and then in April said 4.5 percent was unlikely to be reached.
In the 2017/18 financial year, the BOU expects an improvement of growth to 5.0 percent, still down from its April forecast of 5.5 percent, as public investments pick up, along with foreign direct investment, particular in the oil sector, and private sector credit recovers as lending rates decline.
Sunday, June 18, 2017
BIS defends globalization though gains not evenly spread
The Bank for International
Settlements (BIS), which reflects the thinking among central bankers across the
word, has launched a passionate defense of the economic benefits of
globalization but acknowledged the subsequent rise in income has not been evenly spread and called for sound domestic policies to help those who are negatively affected.
In a early release of a
chapter from next week's annual report, BIS tackles one of the central
questions of the political discourse of the 21st century: Does
globalization benefit or hurt mankind?
"Globalisation has had
a profoundly positive impact on people's lives of the past half-century," answered BIS, the Swiss-based organization that is also known as central bankers'
bank.
"Nevertheless, despite
its substantial benefits, it has been blamed for many shortcomings in the
modern economy and society."
BIS admits that income
gains from global trade are unevenly distributed and the benefits to unskilled
labour in advanced economies may well be diminished because of the greater competition
from the large pool of unskilled labour in emerging markets, which then in turn
may benefit.
"The biggest gains
have accrued to the middle class of fast-growing EME's and the richest citizens
of advanced economies," said BIS, adding that the global upper
middle class has experienced little income growth."
Other the other hand,
global trade leads to lower prices for goods that are disproportionately
consumed by lower-income households, boosting their relative purchasing power
so the net effect on inequality from open trade is uncertain, BIS said.
By releasing a single
chapter and foreward from its annual report, BIS adds weight and importance to
its message about the benefits of globalization. BIS has credibility: It warned
authorities and the financial community well in advance about the build up in
credit that eventually burst and unleashed the 2008 global financial crises.
But while globalization has
reduced poverty and raised living standards worldwide, for example in China, the
uneven distribution of its benefits within countries has allowed its critics to
confound the challenges it poses with the main drivers of many economic and
social ills.
"High inequality
appears to be harmful to growth and has undermined public support for
globalization," said BIS.
BIS clearly fears that
lessons from the past and gains in living standards will be overlooked in the
current political climate, most notably in the United States where U.S.
President Donald Trump has blamed globalization for a loss of jobs and low
wages in some industries.
"Critics often blame
globalization for the rising inequality in some industrialized countries,"
said BIS General Manager Jaime Caruana, adding:
"Empirical studies
show that other factors, mainly technology, have played a bigger role."
While globalization has
been made a scapegoat by opportunistic politicians, BIS says globalization is
not responsible for a rise in income inequality within countries and instead of
rolling back globalization it should be properly managed, domestically and
internationally.
BIS, which draws its staff
from central banks worldwide as well as academia, called for a international
regulatory approach to ensure that policymakers manage global financial risks,
one of the integral aspects of globalization.
Click to read "Understanding globalization", chapter VI in this year's annual report.
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