Saturday, May 30, 2015

Angola maintains rate as credit shrinks, inflation rises

    Angola's central bank maintained its benchmark Basis Interest Rate (BNAS) at 9.25 percent, citing a contraction in credit but accelerating inflation.
    The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which raised its rate by 25 basis points in March, said credit issued to the economy contracted by 0.24 precent in April but was still up by 1.95 percent in cumulative terms this year.
    Angola's consumer price inflation rate rose to an annual 8.23 percent in April from 7.87 percent in March, with a 0.36 percentage point rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages the largest contributor.
    The BNA, whose monetary policy committee met on May 29, added that the average exchange rate of the kwanza to the U.S. dollar depreciated by 1.21 percent in April from March, for a rate of 109.293 kwanza to the dollar.

    www.CentralBankNews.info


Thursday, May 28, 2015

Central Bank News Link List - May 29, 2015: G7 unconcerned about latest bond market volatility – source

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.


Fiji holds rate, notes rising imports, Australia slowdown

    Fiji's central bank maintained its benchmark Overnight Policy Rate at 0.5 percent but cautioned that rising imports in connection with an expanding economy coupled with a likely slowdown in Fiji's key trading partners, particularly Australia, could "weaken our external position."
    The Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF), which has held its rate steady since November 2011, said all sectors of the economy were performing positively and economic activity was continuing to strengthen, propelled by increased consumption and investment.
    Currently, the RBF's dual mandate remains stable, RBF Governor Barry Whiteside said in a statement, noting that inflation eased to 1.5 percent in April from 2.4 percent in March while foreign reserves amounted to some $1.877 billion as of May 28 compared with some $1.857 billion at the end of April.

    The Reserve Bank of Fiji issued the following statement:

Ukraine holds rate but looks to cut when FX stabilizes

    Ukraine's central bank maintained its benchmark discount rate at 30 percent to help stabilize the the domestic money and foreign exchange markets but is looking towards loosening its policy in "the near future" as the hryvnia's exchange rate stabilizes.
   The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which has raised its rate by 16 percentage points this year and by a total of 23.50 percentage points since April 2014, said a stable money market would help restore the monetary transmission mechanism and thus enable banks to provide lending to underpin growth should monetary policy be loosened.
    Members of the central bank's monetary policy committee "raised concerns over the Ukrainian economy sliding into a protracted recession," noting that the output of key sectors shrank by 23.4 percent in April and "heightened risks" that the economy would slow down dramatically.
    However, the NBU added that the current level of the discount rate would "help ensure a firm downward path of inflation and encourage the return of household deposits to the banking system."
    In April the stock of hryvnia deposits by households rose by 4.2 billion, a sign that the public confidence in the banking sector was "gradually being restored."
    Ukraine's hryvnia started falling in February last year after pro-Russian forces occupied the Crimean peninsula and continue to tumble as armed conflict broke out in Eastern Ukraine.
    In 2014 the hryvnia depreciated by almost 50 percent against the U.S. dollar but following a cease-fire agreement in February this year, rate hikes and a series of administrative measures by the central bank, the hryvenia started stabilizing.
    Today the hryvnia was trading at 21.22 to the dollar for a 26 percent decline since the start of this year but much stronger than its low of 33.7 in mid-February. Compared with the start of 2014, the hryvenia has lost 61 percent of its value.
    The NBU said the official UAH/USD exchange rate had fluctuated within a range of 21.4 to 23.5 throughout April and then in May by a narrower range of 20.6 to 20.8 to the dollar.
    Inflation, however, has continued to accelerate, hitting 60.9 percent in April from 45.8 percent in March, boosted by an increase in utility and natural gas tariffs but also by "peculiarities" in the collection method used the statistics office, the central bank said.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Canada holds rate, to check effect of high C$ if sustained

    Canada's central bank kept its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, as widely expected, but cautioned that if the recent strengthening of the Canadian dollar on the back of higher oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar is sustained, the "net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead."
     The Bank of Canada (BOC), which surprised markets by cutting its rate by 25 basis points in January to counter some of the dampening impact on the economy from the fall in oil prices, added that inflation and economic growth was largely in line with its assessment in April and the "assessment of risks to the inflation profile has not materially changed."
   The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, started depreciating against the U.S. dollar in July 2014 and fell to 1.2790 in mid-March - from 1.06 at the start of 2014 - as investors speculated that the BOC could cut rates further. But a rebound in oil prices and optimistic comments by BOC Governor Stephen Poloz in April changed investors' perception and the loonie strengthened.
    By mid-May the Canadian dollar had risen to 1.19 before easing back to 1.247 today, still a decline of almost 7 percent since the start of this year.
    The impact of last year's halving of crude oil prices is is still having an impact on Canada's consumer price inflation, which fell to 0.8 percent in April from 1.2 percent, below the BOC's 1-3 percent inflation target range. But the BOC said core inflation remains above 2 percent  - it was 2.3 percent in April - "boosted by the pass-through effects of past depreciation of the Canadian dollar."
    Consistent with the "persistent slack in the economy," the BOC estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 percent.
    The BOC repeated that is sees economic activity picking up in the second quarter, noting that recent data suggest that consumption was holding up relatively well despite the impact of lower oil prices on overall income.
    In April the BOC cut its forecast for first quarter growth to zero, but raised its forecast for second quarter growth to 1.8 percent and third quarter growth to 2.8 percent. Annual growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 2.63 percent, down from 2.75 percent in the third quarter.

Central Bank News Link List - May 27, 2015: China central bank warns of unstable inflation outlook, low prices

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.



Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Kyrgyzstan pushes number of 2015 rate cutters to 36

    A total of 36 central banks and monetary authorities worldwide have eased their policy stance so far in 2015 while 14 have tightened their policy, with the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic joining the rate-cutting spree on May 25 by cutting its policy rate by 150 basis points.
    From July 2014 through January this year, the central bank of Kyrgyzstan raised its policy rate by a total of 500 basis points to curb inflationary pressures from a depreciation of the som currency. But since late April the som's exchange rate has bounced back and inflation has eased steadily after hitting 11.6 percent in January.
    Central Bank News, which already tracks the policy rates of 90 central banks worldwide, recently expanded its list of products to include Global Monetary Policy Changes (GMPC), a country-by-country overview of changes to monetary policy.
    GMPC aims to capture changes to a wide range of monetary policy instruments, such as reserve requirements, bond purchases or exchange rates, in addition to changes to key interest rates. Major central banks have resorted to unconventional monetary policy measures to stimulate economic activity after cutting rates to effectively zero in the wake of the global financial crises.
     GMPC complements Central Bank News’ other products, such as the the Global Interest Rate Monitor (GIRM), which tracks official policy rates, and Global Monetary Policy Highlights (GMPH), which covers key events in monetary policy and includes a summary of rate changes each month.

    Following is an alphabetical list of countries that have changed their monetary policy this year. The list is updated and can be accessed on the Central Bank News website under the heading of "Easier or Tighter?" as soon as central banks announce changes to their policy.

Hungary cuts rate 15 bps, cautious easing may continue

    Hungary's central bank cut its base rate by another 15 basis points to 1.65 percent and said the outlook for inflation points to "loose monetary conditions for an extended period" and it may continue with "cautious easing" as long as it helps it achieve its inflation target.
    The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) restarted its easing cycle in March after putting it on  hold in August 2014, has now cut its rate by 45 basis points this year. The rate cut was largely expected and economists first expect the central bank to put its easing cycle on hold when rates hit 1.5 percent.
    MNB said there is still a risk of second-round effects taking hold in the wake of falling inflation expectations and inflation is first expected to approach levels around its 3.0 percent target toward the end of the forecast period due to moderate inflation pressures and unused capacity in the economy that is likely to have a disinflationary impact.
    Hungary's consumer price inflation rate was minus 0.3 percent in April, up from minus 0.6 percent in March but still the eight consecutive month of deflation.
    The central bank said the pace of economic activity was strengthening, but output remains below potential and the domestic economy is still expected to have a disinflationary impact, albeit to a diminished extent as capacity utilization will only improve gradually due to the protracted recovery of Hungary's export markets.
    "Inflationary pressures are likely to remain moderate for an extended period," the MNB said.

Kyrgyzstan cuts rate 150 bps as inflation falls, som rises

     The central bank of the Kyrgyz Republic cut its policy rate by 150 basis points to 9.50 percent in light of a continuing decline in inflation and a slowdown in domestic and foreign demand.
     The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic began raising its rate in July 2014 to curb inflationary pressures from the depreciating som currency and the rate cut is the first move by the central bank to roll back rate cuts totaling 500 basis points from July through January. Since February the central bank had maintained the policy rate at 11.0 percent.
     Inflation in Kygyzstan, which borders Kazakhstan to the north and China to the east, eased to 7.9 percent in April and then to 6.4 percent by mid-May from 10.5 percent at the end of 2014, according to the central bank, which targets inflation of 5.0 to 7.0 percent inflation.
    The kyrgyzstani som began depreciating in August 2014 and hit a 2015-low of 63.9 to the U.S. dollar in early April but since then it has bounced back. Today it was quoted at 58.4 to the dollar, steady from 58.9 at the start of the year.
    The central bank said its economic growth was still subject to external factors, citing uncertainty among its main trade partners that is affecting it through trade and remittance channels.
    High economic growth of 7.0 percent from January through April was mainly driven by an expansion of gold mining at the Kumtor mine. Excluding Kumtor, Gross Domestic Product expanded by an annual 3.7 percent.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Central Bank News Link List - May 26, 2015: G7 finance ministers to discuss recent forex moves – Canada

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.


Israel holds rate, warns further shekel rise to hit exports

    Israel's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.10 percent, but said continued appreciation of the shekel's exchange rate "is liable to weigh on growth of exports and of the tradable sector."
    The Bank of Israel (BOI), which cut its rate by 15 basis points in February to counter the negative impact of exports and inflation from the rise in the shekel, noted that the shekel had strengthened by about 1.3 percent against the U.S. dollar since late April though May 22 and year-to-date this amounted to an effective appreciation of 3.7 percent.
    In response to the BOI's statement, the shekel jumped 0.8 percent to around 3.86 to the dollar from 3.89. In 2014 it ended at 3.89 to the dollar.
    Economic data for the first quarter of this year and for April remain mixed, pointing toward continued growth similar to the last two years, the BOI said. Israel's
    Gross Domestic Product is estimated to have expanded by an annual 2.86 percent in the first quarter, slightly down from 2.96 percent in the fourth quarter, with growth led by a 6.5 percent rise in private consumption while fixed capital formation contracted by 7.4 percent and durable goods declined by 11.2 percent.
    Exports of goods, excluding ships, aircraft and diamonds, declined by 4.3 percent in dollar terms in April following a 4.7 percent in the first quarter.
    Israel's consumer price inflation rate was minus 0.5 percent in April, the eight month in a row of deflation, and one-year inflation expectations from various sources are around the lower bound of the BOI's 1.0 percent to 3.0 percent target range.
    "Similar to last month, most private forecasters do not expect a reduction in the Bank of Israel interest rate in the next few months; however, the Telbor curve continues to point to somer probability of such a reduction," the BOI said.

This week in monetary policy: Israel, Angola, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, Canada, Ukraine, Fiji and Trinidad & Tobago

    This week (May 25 through May 30) central banks from eight countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Israel, Angola, the Kyrgyz Republic, Hungary, Canada, Ukraine, Fiji and Trinidad & Tobago.
    Following table includes the name of the country, its MSCI classification, the direction of the latest decision, the date the new policy decision will be announced, the current policy rate, and the rate one year ago.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

COUNTRY MSCI  LATEST              DATE   CURRENT  RATE         1 YEAR AGO
ISRAEL DM UNCH. 25-May 0.10% 0.75%
ANGOLA UNCH. 25-May 9.25% 9.25%
KYRGYZSTAN UNCH. 25-May 11.00% 6.00%
HUNGARY EM CUT 26-May 1.80% 2.40%
CANADA DM UNCH. 27-May 0.75% 1.00%
UKRAINE FM UNCH. 28-May 30.00% 9.50%
FIJI UNCH. 28-May 0.50% 0.50%
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO RAISE 29-May 3.75% 2.75%



Saturday, May 23, 2015

Pakistan cuts rates 100 bps as inflation continues to fall

    Pakistan's central bank effectively cut its policy interest rates by 100 basis points and narrowed its rate corridor by 50 points to 200 basis points as inflation continues its downward trajectory and economic conditions improve, including a smaller current account deficit.
    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which earlier this year revised its rate corridor and introduced a SBP target rate for the money market overnight repo rate, said economic growth was expected to accelerate due to the gradual realization of investments in energy and infrastructure projects.
    "Overcoming energy shortages and improving law and order conditions is expected to provide further impetus in reviving investment and higher production," SBP said.
    Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product is estimated to have expanded by 4.2 percent in fiscal 2015, which ends on June 30, up from 4.0 percent in FY14.
    Pakistan's consumer price inflation rate declined to 2.11 percent in April from 2.49 percent the previous month, continuing the drop since 8.2 percent in June last year, reflecting soft international commodity prices, a stable exchange rate, contained government borrowing, moderate aggregate demand and the central bank's "earlier conservative monetary policy stance."
    SBP said inflation expectations also remain subdued but uncertainty about oil prices and possible changes in domestic energy prices are the main risks to its outlook.
    In March the SBP's board of directors approved changes to the bank's rate corridor to enhance the effectiveness of its monetary policy and better manage liquidity in the interbank market. Under its previous regime from 2009, when the SBP established an interest rate corridor, there was no instrument to limit very frequent drops in the repo rate and the money market repo rate also at times exceeded the reverse repo rate, which was the policy rate.
    In order to improve the rate corridor, the SBP set a target rate between the floor and ceiling rates of the corridor and use purchases and sales of government securities along with other open market operations to keep the money market weighted overnight rate close to the target rate.
    Today the ceiling of the rate corridor was reduced by 100 basis points to 7.0 percent from 8.0 percent, with the new SBP target rate, or its main policy rate, set 50 points below this ceiling rate. By narrowing the rate corridor by 50 points to 200 points, the floor rate is set at 5.0 percent.

Friday, May 22, 2015

Central Bank News Link List - May 22, 2015: Yellen sees rate rise in 2015, gradual pace of tightening

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.