Sunday, September 8, 2013

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Sep 2-6, 2013: Mexico surprises as 3 central banks cut, 1 raises, 10 hold rates

    Last week in global monetary policy three central banks cut rates with Mexico once again taking markets by surprise while Sierra Leone and the West African Central Bank also cut rates. Meanwhile, Uganda raised its rate and 10 other central banks maintained their rates.
    The Bank of Mexico’s second rate cut of the year comes against a backdrop of pressure on the currencies of most emerging markets from capital outflows ahead of an expected turning point in U.S. monetary policy, either later this month or in a few months.
    Although Mexico’s peso started to weaken in May, along with other emerging market currencies, the depreciation has been much less than what has been experienced by India, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia, illustrating that global investors are differentiating  between the underlying economic fundamentals of emerging markets.
    Through the first 36 weeks of this year, central banks have cut rates 85 times, or 24.6 percent, of the 345 policy decisions that have been taken by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News, marginally down from 24.7 percent the previous week.
    Central banks have raised policy rates 18 times, or 5.2 percent of this year’s policy decisions, up from 5.1 percent the previous week and 4.7 percent two weeks ago, illustrating that the trend in global monetary policy is slowly but surely moving away from lower rates.
    The major emerging markets of Brazil and Indonesia account for seven of this year’s 18 rate rises, Denmark for one rate rise and central banks in frontier and other markets for the remaining.
    Following are the headlines and the link to last week’s 14 stories about monetary policy decisions to give readers a quick recap of events during week 36: 


AUSTRALIA DM 2.50% 2.50% 3.50%
KENYA 8.50% 8.50% 13.00%
SIERRA LEONE 12.00% 15.00% 20.00%
UGANDA 12.00% 11.00% 15.00%
POLAND EM 2.50% 2.50% 4.75%
CANADA DM 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
JAPAN DM                 N/A                 N/A 0.10%
MALAYSIA EM 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
UNITED KINGDOM DM 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
EUROSYSTEM DM 0.50% 0.50% 0.75%
SWEDEN DM 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%
TUNISIA FM 4.00% 4.00% 3.75%
W.AFRICAN STATES 3.50% 3.75% 4.00%
MEXICO EM 3.75% 4.00% 4.50%

    This week (week 37) 11 central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including those from Mozambique, Croatia, New Zealand Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Serbia, Latvia, Peru, Pakistan and Russia.

COUNTRY MSCI              DATE               RATE        1 YEAR AGO
MOZAMBIQUE 10-Sep 8.75% 10.50%
CROATIA FM 11-Sep 6.25% 6.25%
NEW ZEALAND DM 12-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
INDONESIA EM 12-Sep 7.00% 5.75%
SOUTH KOREA EM 12-Sep 2.50% 3.00%
PHILIPPINES EM 12-Sep 3.50% 3.75%
SERBIA FM 12-Sep 11.00% 10.50%
LATVIA 12-Sep 2.00% 2.50%
PERU EM 12-Sep 4.25% 4.25%
RUSSIA EM 13-Sep 8.25% 8.25%
PAKISTAN FM 13-Sep 9.00% 10.50%


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