Saturday, September 22, 2012

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Sept. 22, 2012: Japan, India, Turkey ease, Taiwan and Nigeria worry over hot money


    The past week in monetary policy saw interest rate decisions by 7 central banks around the world, with all banks (India, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Japan, South Africa, Taiwan and Nigeria) keeping rates unchanged.
    Monetary policy, however, was still loosened as Japan raised its asset purchase program, India trimmed its cash reserve ratio and Turkey cut the top rate on its interest corridor. Both India and Turkey cited inflationary pressures that limited their ability to ease policy.
    All 7 central banks observed a weaker global economy with the Bank of Japan turning pessimistic after previously expecting a moderate recovery. Taiwan, in contrast, expects the economic outlook to improve slightly in the second half of the year.
    Another message from last week’s central bank statements was concern over the impact of the Federal Reserve’s launch of a new round of asset purchases, known as Quantitative Easing 3, along with a forecast of holding rates close to zero until mid-2015.
    Taiwan and Nigeria expressed concern that the Fed’s latest move would lead to inflows of short-term money to emerging economies. The problem with so-called hot money is that it can be financially destabilizing by pushing up exchange rates and inflation of the destination country. Then, as soon as financial conditions change, the money evaporates, scouring the globe for the next opportunity.

LAST WEEK'S MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:
COUNTRY NEW RATE PREVIOUS RATE RATE 1 YEAR AGO
INDIA 8.00% 8.00% 8.25%
SRI LANKA 7.75% 7.75% 7.00%
TURKEY 5.75% 5.75% 5.75%
JAPAN 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
SOUTH AFRICA 5.00% 5.50% 5.50%
TAIWAN 1.88% 1.88% 1.88%
NIGERIA 12.00% 12.00% 9.25%
NEXT WEEK:
    The central bank calendar next week looks quiet, with 6 central banks meeting: Israel, Hungary, Georgia, Romania, Czech Republic and Colombia.
    Hungary may cut rates again while the Czech central bank may follow some of the other major central banks and embark on some form of quantitative easing given a shrinking economy and a policy rate of 0.5 percent.
    Another event to keep en eye on is Mexico City, where Group of 20 deputy finance minsters and central bank governors meet Sunday and Monday, Sept. 23 and 24.
COUNTRY MEETING CURRENT RATE RATE 1 YEAR AGO
ISRAEL 24-Sep 2.25% 3.00%
HUNGARY 25-Sep 6.75% 6.00%
GEORGIA 26-Sep 5.75% 7.50%
ROMANIA 27-Sep 5.25% 6.35%
CZECH REPUBLIC 27-Sep 0.50% 0.75%
COLOMBIA                                     28-Sep                      4.75%                   4.50%

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